Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago  

Release: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index  

Units:  Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency:  Weekly, Ending Friday

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) provides a comprehensive weekly update on U.S. financial conditions in money markets, debt and equity markets, and the traditional and “shadow” banking systems. Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.

"Positive values of the NFCI indicate financial conditions that are tighter than average, while negative values indicate financial conditions that are looser than average."

"The three subindexes of the NFCI (risk, credit and leverage) allow for a more detailed examination of the movements in the NFCI. Like the NFCI, each is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one over a sample period extending back to 1971. The risk subindex captures volatility and funding risk in the financial sector; the credit subindex is composed of measures of credit conditions; and the leverage subindex consists of debt and equity measures. Increasing risk, tighter credit conditions and declining leverage are consistent with tightening financial conditions. Thus, a positive value for an individual subindex indicates that the corresponding aspect of financial conditions is tighter than on average, while negative values indicate the opposite.

The nonfinancial leverage subindex of the NFCI best exemplifies how leverage can serve as an early warning signal for financial stress and its potential impact on economic growth. The positive weight assigned to both the household and nonfinancial business leverage measures in this NFCI subindex make it characteristic of the feedback process between the financial and nonfinancial sectors of the economy often referred to as the “financial accelerator." Increasingly tighter financial conditions are associated with rising risk premiums and declining asset values. The net worth of households and nonfinancial firms is, thus, reduced at the same time that credit tightens. This leads to a period of deleveraging (i.e., debt reduction) across the financial and nonfinancial sectors of the economy and ultimately to lower economic activity." Source: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/research/data/nfci/background.cfm.

For further information, please visit the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's NFCI website at http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/nfci/index.cfm.