Federal Reserve Economic Data

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

BEA Account Code: DPCERG A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: PA METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: GY FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

data source (https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/ContactUs/feedback.aspx?refurl=/releases/h15/%). For questions on FRED functionality, please contact us here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/contactus/).</p>

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

This series last appeared in the February, 2021 report: NROU (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)), formerly called "Natural Rate of Unemployment (Long-Term)." The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the short-term natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: CHN MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: IX METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_20YEARM) and 20-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_20YEARM). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 20 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

View the annual rate of economic output, or the inflation-adjusted value of all new goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S.

The Sticky Price Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated from a subset of goods and services included in the CPI that change price relatively infrequently. Because these goods and services change price relatively infrequently, they are thought to incorporate expectations about future inflation to a greater degree than prices that change on a more frequent basis. One possible explanation for sticky prices could be the costs firms incur when changing price. To obtain more information about this release see: Michael F. Bryan, and Brent H. Meyer. “Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others? We Think So.” Economic Commentary Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland May 19, 2010: 1–6. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002 (https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-201002).

OECD descriptor ID: CPHPTT01 OECD unit ID: GY OECD country ID: EA17 All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD, "Main Economic Indicators - complete database", Main Economic Indicators (database),http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/data-00052-en (Accessed on date) Copyright, 2016, OECD. Reprinted with permission.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: CHN MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: PA METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: N TRANSFORMATION: GY FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

View data of the CPI, or an inflation measure derived from tracking the changes in the weighted-average price of a basket of common goods and services.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: IX METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: S TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

BEA Account Code: BPCCRO For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: CPI UNIT_MEASURE: IX METHODOLOGY: N EXPENDITURE: _T ADJUSTMENT: S TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: Q All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used. International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data files.

Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.