Table Data - Deflation Probability
| Title | Deflation Probability |
|---|---|
| Series ID | STLPPMDEF |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| Release | St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures (Not a Press Release) |
| Seasonal Adjustment | Not Seasonally Adjusted |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Units | Probability |
| Date Range | 1990-01-01 to 2024-10-01 |
| Last Updated | 2024-10-31 3:03 PM CDT |
| Notes | This series measures the probability that the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) inflation rate (12-month changes) over the next 12 months will fall below zero. For additional information on the Price Pressures Measure and its construction, see Introducing the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure. As of April 5, 2023, the MZM Money Stock measure, in SA billions of dollars, has been replaced with the series Revolving Consumer Credit Outstanding (break-adjusted), in SA billions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve’s monthly G.19 release. This change was made because the MZM series was discontinued. As of February 3, 2020, the Emerging and Developing Asia and Western Hemisphere Consumer Prices Indexes have been replaced with Asia/Pacific Rim and Latin America Consumer Price Indexes respectively. These changes were made to facilitate a more timely updating of the PPM. Switching the Consumer Prices Indexes produced no meaningful change in the PPM series. As of January 29, 2021, the Adjusted Monetary Base (including Deposits to Satisfy Clearing Balance Contracts) Seasonally Adjusted, in billions of dollars has been replaced with the series, Monetary Base, NSA, in billions of dollars. |
| DATE | VALUE |
|---|---|
| 1990-01-01 | 0.08404296 |
| 1990-02-01 | 0.02992625 |
| 1990-03-01 | 0.08402775 |
| 1990-04-01 | 0.06812148 |
| 1990-05-01 | 0.13021918 |
| 1990-06-01 | 0.12259751 |
| 1990-07-01 | 0.07329092 |
| 1990-08-01 | 0.13100955 |
| 1990-09-01 | 0.23269308 |
| 1990-10-01 | 0.02911574 |
| 1990-11-01 | 0.05592999 |
| 1990-12-01 | 0.08323271 |
| 1991-01-01 | 0.05727887 |
| 1991-02-01 | 0.04218401 |
| 1991-03-01 | 0.04650678 |
| 1991-04-01 | 0.07963346 |
| 1991-05-01 | 0.09164253 |
| 1991-06-01 | 0.08474623 |
| 1991-07-01 | 0.06884039 |
| 1991-08-01 | 0.08731166 |
| 1991-09-01 | 0.11766794 |
| 1991-10-01 | 0.09710210 |
| 1991-11-01 | 0.10188941 |
| 1991-12-01 | 0.11072102 |
| 1992-01-01 | 0.16094745 |
| 1992-02-01 | 0.12003148 |
| 1992-03-01 | 0.12174091 |
| 1992-04-01 | 0.08974096 |
| 1992-05-01 | 0.09678438 |
| 1992-06-01 | 0.10714669 |
| 1992-07-01 | 0.09959661 |
| 1992-08-01 | 0.13511901 |
| 1992-09-01 | 0.13332329 |
| 1992-10-01 | 0.12896064 |
| 1992-11-01 | 0.10309465 |
| 1992-12-01 | 0.09882902 |
| 1993-01-01 | 0.08793959 |
| 1993-02-01 | 0.07000692 |
| 1993-03-01 | 0.10250632 |
| 1993-04-01 | 0.08499308 |
| 1993-05-01 | 0.08526879 |
| 1993-06-01 | 0.05334655 |
| 1993-07-01 | 0.07860558 |
| 1993-08-01 | 0.07249690 |
| 1993-09-01 | 0.09029991 |
| 1993-10-01 | 0.08947240 |
| 1993-11-01 | 0.09697819 |
| 1993-12-01 | 0.05023087 |
| 1994-01-01 | 0.05962569 |
| 1994-02-01 | 0.05715753 |
| 1994-03-01 | 0.02361504 |
| 1994-04-01 | 0.02496285 |
| 1994-05-01 | 0.02776216 |
| 1994-06-01 | 0.03297051 |
| 1994-07-01 | 0.04332555 |
| 1994-08-01 | 0.03188255 |
| 1994-09-01 | 0.01913821 |
| 1994-10-01 | 0.02828496 |
| 1994-11-01 | 0.03219105 |
| 1994-12-01 | 0.01543524 |
| 1995-01-01 | 0.00168451 |
| 1995-02-01 | 0.00057756 |
| 1995-03-01 | 0.00447312 |
| 1995-04-01 | 0.00112239 |
| 1995-05-01 | 0.00121612 |
| 1995-06-01 | 0.00141393 |
| 1995-07-01 | 0.00166466 |
| 1995-08-01 | 0.00226602 |
| 1995-09-01 | 0.00245156 |
| 1995-10-01 | 0.00854572 |
| 1995-11-01 | 0.00224231 |
| 1995-12-01 | 0.00919674 |
| 1996-01-01 | 0.00164368 |
| 1996-02-01 | 0.00027814 |
| 1996-03-01 | 0.00058498 |
| 1996-04-01 | 0.00009643 |
| 1996-05-01 | 0.00004719 |
| 1996-06-01 | 0.00003459 |
| 1996-07-01 | 0.00018658 |
| 1996-08-01 | 0.00001993 |
| 1996-09-01 | 0.00017338 |
| 1996-10-01 | 0.00005654 |
| 1996-11-01 | 0.00014433 |
| 1996-12-01 | 0.00013646 |
| 1997-01-01 | 0.00000040 |
| 1997-02-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 1997-03-01 | 0.00000019 |
| 1997-04-01 | 0.00000283 |
| 1997-05-01 | 0.00000833 |
| 1997-06-01 | 0.00003685 |
| 1997-07-01 | 0.00000179 |
| 1997-08-01 | 0.00000972 |
| 1997-09-01 | 0.00002983 |
| 1997-10-01 | 0.00001434 |
| 1997-11-01 | 0.00003398 |
| 1997-12-01 | 0.00018082 |
| 1998-01-01 | 0.00106717 |
| 1998-02-01 | 0.00233422 |
| 1998-03-01 | 0.01381041 |
| 1998-04-01 | 0.00853598 |
| 1998-05-01 | 0.00185407 |
| 1998-06-01 | 0.00381873 |
| 1998-07-01 | 0.04089946 |
| 1998-08-01 | 0.00260424 |
| 1998-09-01 | 0.00216460 |
| 1998-10-01 | 0.04714570 |
| 1998-11-01 | 0.01858021 |
| 1998-12-01 | 0.00781365 |
| 1999-01-01 | 0.04731733 |
| 1999-02-01 | 0.00275499 |
| 1999-03-01 | 0.01926866 |
| 1999-04-01 | 0.00358844 |
| 1999-05-01 | 0.00000416 |
| 1999-06-01 | 0.00067972 |
| 1999-07-01 | 0.00070425 |
| 1999-08-01 | 0.00005794 |
| 1999-09-01 | 0.00002644 |
| 1999-10-01 | 0.00000149 |
| 1999-11-01 | 0.00004188 |
| 1999-12-01 | 0.00001821 |
| 2000-01-01 | 0.00000671 |
| 2000-02-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2000-03-01 | 0.00000034 |
| 2000-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2000-05-01 | 0.00000319 |
| 2000-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-07-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2000-08-01 | 0.00000013 |
| 2000-09-01 | 0.00000012 |
| 2000-10-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2000-11-01 | 0.00000007 |
| 2000-12-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2001-01-01 | 0.00000258 |
| 2001-02-01 | 0.00000012 |
| 2001-03-01 | 0.00000028 |
| 2001-04-01 | 0.00001136 |
| 2001-05-01 | 0.00000010 |
| 2001-06-01 | 0.00000001 |
| 2001-07-01 | 0.00000010 |
| 2001-08-01 | 0.00000473 |
| 2001-09-01 | 0.00000316 |
| 2001-10-01 | 0.00101584 |
| 2001-11-01 | 0.00249704 |
| 2001-12-01 | 0.00043326 |
| 2002-01-01 | 0.00283592 |
| 2002-02-01 | 0.00641741 |
| 2002-03-01 | 0.00350396 |
| 2002-04-01 | 0.00007387 |
| 2002-05-01 | 0.00011265 |
| 2002-06-01 | 0.00057333 |
| 2002-07-01 | 0.00091821 |
| 2002-08-01 | 0.00021610 |
| 2002-09-01 | 0.00073080 |
| 2002-10-01 | 0.00045481 |
| 2002-11-01 | 0.00007275 |
| 2002-12-01 | 0.00006747 |
| 2003-01-01 | 0.00065529 |
| 2003-02-01 | 0.00032326 |
| 2003-03-01 | 0.00063420 |
| 2003-04-01 | 0.00140231 |
| 2003-05-01 | 0.07205625 |
| 2003-06-01 | 0.02399257 |
| 2003-07-01 | 0.00528356 |
| 2003-08-01 | 0.00005420 |
| 2003-09-01 | 0.00004571 |
| 2003-10-01 | 0.00053165 |
| 2003-11-01 | 0.00045702 |
| 2003-12-01 | 0.00058236 |
| 2004-01-01 | 0.00002819 |
| 2004-02-01 | 0.00001817 |
| 2004-03-01 | 0.00003249 |
| 2004-04-01 | 0.00004494 |
| 2004-05-01 | 0.00000139 |
| 2004-06-01 | 0.00000159 |
| 2004-07-01 | 0.00000159 |
| 2004-08-01 | 0.00003026 |
| 2004-09-01 | 0.00005551 |
| 2004-10-01 | 0.00001530 |
| 2004-11-01 | 0.00000071 |
| 2004-12-01 | 0.00000032 |
| 2005-01-01 | 0.00000130 |
| 2005-02-01 | 0.00000119 |
| 2005-03-01 | 0.00000029 |
| 2005-04-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-05-01 | 0.00000042 |
| 2005-06-01 | 0.00001153 |
| 2005-07-01 | 0.00002200 |
| 2005-08-01 | 0.00000007 |
| 2005-09-01 | 0.00000014 |
| 2005-10-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-11-01 | 0.00000000 |
| 2005-12-01 | 0.00000940 |
| 2006-01-01 | 0.00000793 |
| 2006-02-01 | 0.00000002 |
| 2006-03-01 | 0.00000031 |
| 2006-04-01 | 0.00000256 |
| 2006-05-01 | 0.00000017 |
| 2006-06-01 | 0.00000003 |
| 2006-07-01 | 0.00000226 |
| 2006-08-01 | 0.00000204 |
| 2006-09-01 | 0.00000257 |
| 2006-10-01 | 0.00263870 |
| 2006-11-01 | 0.00240482 |
| 2006-12-01 | 0.00015098 |
| 2007-01-01 | 0.00013772 |
| 2007-02-01 | 0.00007011 |
| 2007-03-01 | 0.00000056 |
| 2007-04-01 | 0.00000260 |
| 2007-05-01 | 0.00003607 |
| 2007-06-01 | 0.00023900 |
| 2007-07-01 | 0.00033595 |
| 2007-08-01 | 0.00093149 |
| 2007-09-01 | 0.00977914 |
| 2007-10-01 | 0.00028450 |
| 2007-11-01 | 0.00009484 |
| 2007-12-01 | 0.00001532 |
| 2008-01-01 | 0.00019819 |
| 2008-02-01 | 0.00042703 |
| 2008-03-01 | 0.00015011 |
| 2008-04-01 | 0.00069310 |
| 2008-05-01 | 0.00016192 |
| 2008-06-01 | 0.00050697 |
| 2008-07-01 | 0.00005305 |
| 2008-08-01 | 0.00006975 |
| 2008-09-01 | 0.00053951 |
| 2008-10-01 | 0.00089124 |
| 2008-11-01 | 0.29401622 |
| 2008-12-01 | 0.48979681 |
| 2009-01-01 | 0.89072919 |
| 2009-02-01 | 0.25587752 |
| 2009-03-01 | 0.39827210 |
| 2009-04-01 | 0.76704642 |
| 2009-05-01 | 0.37059210 |
| 2009-06-01 | 0.44005151 |
| 2009-07-01 | 0.51887506 |
| 2009-08-01 | 0.74418617 |
| 2009-09-01 | 0.47744685 |
| 2009-10-01 | 0.57065795 |
| 2009-11-01 | 0.16190565 |
| 2009-12-01 | 0.00012751 |
| 2010-01-01 | 0.01481047 |
| 2010-02-01 | 0.01575656 |
| 2010-03-01 | 0.03572212 |
| 2010-04-01 | 0.00393835 |
| 2010-05-01 | 0.00230845 |
| 2010-06-01 | 0.01743987 |
| 2010-07-01 | 0.08159024 |
| 2010-08-01 | 0.04078567 |
| 2010-09-01 | 0.02901748 |
| 2010-10-01 | 0.05365154 |
| 2010-11-01 | 0.02058530 |
| 2010-12-01 | 0.05439493 |
| 2011-01-01 | 0.02144312 |
| 2011-02-01 | 0.01586419 |
| 2011-03-01 | 0.01536560 |
| 2011-04-01 | 0.02972658 |
| 2011-05-01 | 0.00323233 |
| 2011-06-01 | 0.00897248 |
| 2011-07-01 | 0.00325697 |
| 2011-08-01 | 0.00387179 |
| 2011-09-01 | 0.00658333 |
| 2011-10-01 | 0.01549124 |
| 2011-11-01 | 0.02243939 |
| 2011-12-01 | 0.01928130 |
| 2012-01-01 | 0.01425459 |
| 2012-02-01 | 0.00483780 |
| 2012-03-01 | 0.00241041 |
| 2012-04-01 | 0.00189911 |
| 2012-05-01 | 0.00432072 |
| 2012-06-01 | 0.01124340 |
| 2012-07-01 | 0.01399588 |
| 2012-08-01 | 0.00386542 |
| 2012-09-01 | 0.00115001 |
| 2012-10-01 | 0.00351991 |
| 2012-11-01 | 0.00977967 |
| 2012-12-01 | 0.00896297 |
| 2013-01-01 | 0.00371649 |
| 2013-02-01 | 0.00206807 |
| 2013-03-01 | 0.00206271 |
| 2013-04-01 | 0.00158274 |
| 2013-05-01 | 0.00676340 |
| 2013-06-01 | 0.00307943 |
| 2013-07-01 | 0.00290858 |
| 2013-08-01 | 0.00276111 |
| 2013-09-01 | 0.00327175 |
| 2013-10-01 | 0.00632050 |
| 2013-11-01 | 0.01302197 |
| 2013-12-01 | 0.00612611 |
| 2014-01-01 | 0.00576464 |
| 2014-02-01 | 0.00974731 |
| 2014-03-01 | 0.00867862 |
| 2014-04-01 | 0.00231491 |
| 2014-05-01 | 0.00206254 |
| 2014-06-01 | 0.00391747 |
| 2014-07-01 | 0.01064663 |
| 2014-08-01 | 0.00665243 |
| 2014-09-01 | 0.01241817 |
| 2014-10-01 | 0.01052128 |
| 2014-11-01 | 0.02562366 |
| 2014-12-01 | 0.03099595 |
| 2015-01-01 | 0.05554717 |
| 2015-02-01 | 0.46090721 |
| 2015-03-01 | 0.09202773 |
| 2015-04-01 | 0.04233636 |
| 2015-05-01 | 0.06848308 |
| 2015-06-01 | 0.03429621 |
| 2015-07-01 | 0.02653072 |
| 2015-08-01 | 0.07241624 |
| 2015-09-01 | 0.10299738 |
| 2015-10-01 | 0.14651980 |
| 2015-11-01 | 0.15233918 |
| 2015-12-01 | 0.16703160 |
| 2016-01-01 | 0.08578308 |
| 2016-02-01 | 0.02648007 |
| 2016-03-01 | 0.01391104 |
| 2016-04-01 | 0.00682559 |
| 2016-05-01 | 0.00168976 |
| 2016-06-01 | 0.00045266 |
| 2016-07-01 | 0.00117023 |
| 2016-08-01 | 0.00283889 |
| 2016-09-01 | 0.00112519 |
| 2016-10-01 | 0.00177429 |
| 2016-11-01 | 0.00091732 |
| 2016-12-01 | 0.00037409 |
| 2017-01-01 | 0.00152792 |
| 2017-02-01 | 0.00344300 |
| 2017-03-01 | 0.00294939 |
| 2017-04-01 | 0.00553126 |
| 2017-05-01 | 0.00949543 |
| 2017-06-01 | 0.00374583 |
| 2017-07-01 | 0.00484830 |
| 2017-08-01 | 0.00468456 |
| 2017-09-01 | 0.00692919 |
| 2017-10-01 | 0.00500864 |
| 2017-11-01 | 0.01015908 |
| 2017-12-01 | 0.00570171 |
| 2018-01-01 | 0.00251295 |
| 2018-02-01 | 0.00160496 |
| 2018-03-01 | 0.00272088 |
| 2018-04-01 | 0.00329660 |
| 2018-05-01 | 0.00215441 |
| 2018-06-01 | 0.00164216 |
| 2018-07-01 | 0.00311999 |
| 2018-08-01 | 0.00491018 |
| 2018-09-01 | 0.01118906 |
| 2018-10-01 | 0.00446917 |
| 2018-11-01 | 0.00438328 |
| 2018-12-01 | 0.00375462 |
| 2019-01-01 | 0.00609775 |
| 2019-02-01 | 0.00409326 |
| 2019-03-01 | 0.00362239 |
| 2019-04-01 | 0.00220950 |
| 2019-05-01 | 0.00252719 |
| 2019-06-01 | 0.00537833 |
| 2019-07-01 | 0.00533872 |
| 2019-08-01 | 0.00885344 |
| 2019-09-01 | 0.00777071 |
| 2019-10-01 | 0.00834956 |
| 2019-11-01 | 0.00316539 |
| 2019-12-01 | 0.00397220 |
| 2020-01-01 | 0.00181369 |
| 2020-02-01 | 0.00077727 |
| 2020-03-01 | 0.00212694 |
| 2020-04-01 | 0.11070685 |
| 2020-05-01 | 0.85156615 |
| 2020-06-01 | 0.01116875 |
| 2020-07-01 | 0.00570586 |
| 2020-08-01 | 0.00163871 |
| 2020-09-01 | 0.00031460 |
| 2020-10-01 | 0.00052362 |
| 2020-11-01 | 0.00241222 |
| 2020-12-01 | 0.00102351 |
| 2021-01-01 | 0.00114177 |
| 2021-02-01 | 0.00135600 |
| 2021-03-01 | 0.00051842 |
| 2021-04-01 | 0.00005303 |
| 2021-05-01 | 0.00011159 |
| 2021-06-01 | 0.00004297 |
| 2021-07-01 | 0.00003463 |
| 2021-08-01 | 0.00006575 |
| 2021-09-01 | 0.00003164 |
| 2021-10-01 | 0.00008655 |
| 2021-11-01 | 0.00002954 |
| 2021-12-01 | 0.00000862 |
| 2022-01-01 | 0.00000919 |
| 2022-02-01 | 0.00003221 |
| 2022-03-01 | 0.00000189 |
| 2022-04-01 | 0.00000077 |
| 2022-05-01 | 0.00000806 |
| 2022-06-01 | 0.00001205 |
| 2022-07-01 | 0.00004609 |
| 2022-08-01 | 0.00006706 |
| 2022-09-01 | 0.00003931 |
| 2022-10-01 | 0.00033115 |
| 2022-11-01 | 0.00043659 |
| 2022-12-01 | 0.00004173 |
| 2023-01-01 | 0.00008374 |
| 2023-02-01 | 0.00015571 |
| 2023-03-01 | 0.00003358 |
| 2023-04-01 | 0.00003643 |
| 2023-05-01 | 0.00001654 |
| 2023-06-01 | 0.00006268 |
| 2023-07-01 | 0.00017522 |
| 2023-08-01 | 0.00002057 |
| 2023-09-01 | 0.00013864 |
| 2023-10-01 | 0.00002728 |
| 2023-11-01 | 0.00028834 |
| 2023-12-01 | 0.00177489 |
| 2024-01-01 | 0.00349987 |
| 2024-02-01 | 0.00251667 |
| 2024-03-01 | 0.00020657 |
| 2024-04-01 | 0.00013879 |
| 2024-05-01 | 0.00044239 |
| 2024-06-01 | 0.00053083 |
| 2024-07-01 | 0.00121808 |
| 2024-08-01 | 0.00101536 |
| 2024-09-01 | 0.00252753 |
| 2024-10-01 | 0.00000000 |
