NOTE: THIS DATA FILE WILL CHANGE! To improve accessibility of data for all users, we will convert this file from a text format to an html table by the end of June 2024. Title: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Series ID: SAHMREALTIME Source: Sahm, Claudia Release: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (Not a Press Release) Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Monthly Units: Percentage Points Date Range: 1959-12-01 to 2024-04-01 Last Updated: 2024-05-03 7:57 AM CDT Notes: Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise. DATE VALUE 1959-12-01 0.77 1960-01-01 0.50 1960-02-01 0.13 1960-03-01 0.10 1960-04-01 0.03 1960-05-01 0.07 1960-06-01 0.10 1960-07-01 0.23 1960-08-01 0.53 1960-09-01 0.60 1960-10-01 0.93 1960-11-01 1.07 1960-12-01 1.30 1961-01-01 1.40 1961-02-01 1.60 1961-03-01 1.63 1961-04-01 1.70 1961-05-01 1.67 1961-06-01 1.63 1961-07-01 1.53 1961-08-01 1.30 1961-09-01 1.20 1961-10-01 0.90 1961-11-01 0.50 1961-12-01 -0.07 1962-01-01 -0.30 1962-02-01 -0.17 1962-03-01 -0.17 1962-04-01 -0.10 1962-05-01 -0.07 1962-06-01 0.00 1962-07-01 -0.07 1962-08-01 0.13 1962-09-01 0.23 1962-10-01 0.30 1962-11-01 0.30 1962-12-01 0.07 1963-01-01 0.23 1963-02-01 0.33 1963-03-01 0.37 1963-04-01 0.33 1963-05-01 0.27 1963-06-01 0.30 1963-07-01 0.27 1963-08-01 0.07 1963-09-01 0.03 1963-10-01 0.00 1963-11-01 0.13 1963-12-01 0.13 1964-01-01 0.13 1964-02-01 -0.03 1964-03-01 -0.03 1964-04-01 -0.07 1964-05-01 -0.10 1964-06-01 -0.03 1964-07-01 -0.17 1964-08-01 0.00 1964-09-01 -0.03 1964-10-01 0.10 1964-11-01 0.07 1964-12-01 -0.03 1965-01-01 -0.13 1965-02-01 0.03 1965-03-01 -0.07 1965-04-01 0.03 1965-05-01 -0.10 1965-06-01 0.00 1965-07-01 -0.13 1965-08-01 -0.03 1965-09-01 -0.10 1965-10-01 -0.07 1965-11-01 -0.10 1965-12-01 -0.10 1966-01-01 -0.10 1966-02-01 -0.17 1966-03-01 -0.10 1966-04-01 -0.10 1966-05-01 0.10 1966-06-01 0.17 1966-07-01 0.23 1966-08-01 0.20 1966-09-01 0.13 1966-10-01 0.13 1966-11-01 0.07 1966-12-01 0.00 1967-01-01 -0.03 1967-02-01 0.07 1967-03-01 0.03 1967-04-01 0.03 1967-05-01 0.07 1967-06-01 0.20 1967-07-01 0.27 1967-08-01 0.27 1967-09-01 0.30 1967-10-01 0.43 1967-11-01 0.47 1967-12-01 0.27 1968-01-01 0.00 1968-02-01 -0.03 1968-03-01 -0.03 1968-04-01 0.00 1968-05-01 -0.07 1968-06-01 0.07 1968-07-01 0.13 1968-08-01 0.13 1968-09-01 0.07 1968-10-01 0.03 1968-11-01 -0.03 1968-12-01 -0.10 1969-01-01 -0.10 1969-02-01 -0.03 1969-03-01 0.03 1969-04-01 0.10 1969-05-01 0.17 1969-06-01 0.17 1969-07-01 0.20 1969-08-01 0.20 1969-09-01 0.40 1969-10-01 0.50 1969-11-01 0.47 1969-12-01 0.27 1970-01-01 0.30 1970-02-01 0.53 1970-03-01 0.80 1970-04-01 1.07 1970-05-01 1.27 1970-06-01 1.37 1970-07-01 1.43 1970-08-01 1.47 1970-09-01 1.60 1970-10-01 1.80 1970-11-01 2.03 1970-12-01 2.27 1971-01-01 2.37 1971-02-01 2.10 1971-03-01 1.77 1971-04-01 1.53 1971-05-01 1.43 1971-06-01 1.17 1971-07-01 0.97 1971-08-01 0.87 1971-09-01 0.80 1971-10-01 0.63 1971-11-01 0.33 1971-12-01 0.13 1972-01-01 0.03 1972-02-01 -0.07 1972-03-01 -0.03 1972-04-01 0.00 1972-05-01 0.07 1972-06-01 -0.07 1972-07-01 -0.13 1972-08-01 -0.10 1972-09-01 0.00 1972-10-01 0.00 1972-11-01 -0.13 1972-12-01 -0.13 1973-01-01 -0.17 1973-02-01 -0.03 1973-03-01 -0.03 1973-04-01 0.00 1973-05-01 -0.03 1973-06-01 -0.07 1973-07-01 -0.10 1973-08-01 -0.07 1973-09-01 0.00 1973-10-01 -0.07 1973-11-01 -0.03 1973-12-01 0.03 1974-01-01 0.23 1974-02-01 0.40 1974-03-01 0.50 1974-04-01 0.43 1974-05-01 0.43 1974-06-01 0.47 1974-07-01 0.57 1974-08-01 0.63 1974-09-01 0.83 1974-10-01 1.07 1974-11-01 1.43 1974-12-01 1.83 1975-01-01 2.37 1975-02-01 2.77 1975-03-01 3.27 1975-04-01 3.50 1975-05-01 3.83 1975-06-01 3.77 1975-07-01 3.50 1975-08-01 3.17 1975-09-01 2.87 1975-10-01 2.70 1975-11-01 2.27 1975-12-01 1.80 1976-01-01 0.93 1976-02-01 0.20 1976-03-01 -0.27 1976-04-01 -0.10 1976-05-01 -0.10 1976-06-01 0.00 1976-07-01 0.10 1976-08-01 0.30 1976-09-01 0.40 1976-10-01 0.43 1976-11-01 0.50 1976-12-01 0.47 1977-01-01 0.27 1977-02-01 0.10 1977-03-01 -0.07 1977-04-01 -0.10 1977-05-01 -0.20 1977-06-01 -0.07 1977-07-01 -0.03 1977-08-01 0.07 1977-09-01 0.00 1977-10-01 0.03 1977-11-01 -0.03 1977-12-01 -0.13 1978-01-01 -0.17 1978-02-01 -0.20 1978-03-01 -0.07 1978-04-01 -0.10 1978-05-01 0.00 1978-06-01 -0.17 1978-07-01 0.07 1978-08-01 0.00 1978-09-01 0.10 1978-10-01 -0.03 1978-11-01 -0.03 1978-12-01 0.00 1979-01-01 0.00 1979-02-01 -0.03 1979-03-01 -0.07 1979-04-01 0.00 1979-05-01 0.03 1979-06-01 0.00 1979-07-01 -0.03 1979-08-01 0.07 1979-09-01 0.13 1979-10-01 0.23 1979-11-01 0.17 1979-12-01 0.13 1980-01-01 0.23 1980-02-01 0.30 1980-03-01 0.40 1980-04-01 0.67 1980-05-01 1.27 1980-06-01 1.77 1980-07-01 2.03 1980-08-01 1.93 1980-09-01 1.83 1980-10-01 1.73 1980-11-01 1.70 1980-12-01 1.57 1981-01-01 1.40 1981-02-01 1.23 1981-03-01 1.10 1981-04-01 0.83 1981-05-01 0.47 1981-06-01 0.10 1981-07-01 0.00 1981-08-01 -0.13 1981-09-01 0.07 1981-10-01 0.40 1981-11-01 0.80 1981-12-01 1.07 1982-01-01 1.23 1982-02-01 1.40 1982-03-01 1.47 1982-04-01 1.77 1982-05-01 2.00 1982-06-01 2.17 1982-07-01 2.30 1982-08-01 2.40 1982-09-01 2.53 1982-10-01 2.47 1982-11-01 2.47 1982-12-01 2.37 1983-01-01 2.13 1983-02-01 1.87 1983-03-01 1.57 1983-04-01 1.27 1983-05-01 0.97 1983-06-01 0.70 1983-07-01 0.30 1983-08-01 -0.07 1983-09-01 -0.23 1983-10-01 -0.23 1983-11-01 -0.37 1983-12-01 -0.33 1984-01-01 -0.27 1984-02-01 -0.20 1984-03-01 -0.13 1984-04-01 -0.07 1984-05-01 -0.10 1984-06-01 -0.23 1984-07-01 -0.10 1984-08-01 0.00 1984-09-01 0.10 1984-10-01 0.07 1984-11-01 -0.03 1984-12-01 -0.07 1985-01-01 0.03 1985-02-01 0.10 1985-03-01 0.13 1985-04-01 0.10 1985-05-01 0.10 1985-06-01 0.10 1985-07-01 0.10 1985-08-01 0.00 1985-09-01 -0.07 1985-10-01 -0.07 1985-11-01 0.00 1985-12-01 -0.07 1986-01-01 -0.13 1986-02-01 0.10 1986-03-01 0.20 1986-04-01 0.33 1986-05-01 0.33 1986-06-01 0.30 1986-07-01 0.23 1986-08-01 0.07 1986-09-01 0.03 1986-10-01 0.07 1986-11-01 0.13 1986-12-01 -0.07 1987-01-01 -0.07 1987-02-01 -0.07 1987-03-01 -0.03 1987-04-01 -0.13 1987-05-01 -0.13 1987-06-01 -0.17 1987-07-01 -0.10 1987-08-01 -0.10 1987-09-01 -0.07 1987-10-01 0.00 1987-11-01 -0.03 1987-12-01 -0.03 1988-01-01 -0.07 1988-02-01 -0.07 1988-03-01 -0.07 1988-04-01 -0.13 1988-05-01 -0.03 1988-06-01 -0.10 1988-07-01 0.00 1988-08-01 0.00 1988-09-01 0.03 1988-10-01 0.00 1988-11-01 -0.07 1988-12-01 -0.03 1989-01-01 0.03 1989-02-01 -0.07 1989-03-01 -0.10 1989-04-01 -0.03 1989-05-01 0.03 1989-06-01 0.13 1989-07-01 0.10 1989-08-01 0.10 1989-09-01 0.10 1989-10-01 0.13 1989-11-01 0.20 1989-12-01 0.13 1990-01-01 0.13 1990-02-01 0.13 1990-03-01 0.10 1990-04-01 0.13 1990-05-01 0.13 1990-06-01 0.03 1990-07-01 0.07 1990-08-01 0.17 1990-09-01 0.33 1990-10-01 0.40 1990-11-01 0.50 1990-12-01 0.60 1991-01-01 0.77 1991-02-01 0.97 1991-03-01 1.20 1991-04-01 1.30 1991-05-01 1.43 1991-06-01 1.50 1991-07-01 1.53 1991-08-01 1.40 1991-09-01 1.17 1991-10-01 1.10 1991-11-01 1.00 1991-12-01 1.00 1992-01-01 0.93 1992-02-01 0.90 1992-03-01 0.77 1992-04-01 0.67 1992-05-01 0.63 1992-06-01 0.73 1992-07-01 0.87 1992-08-01 0.90 1992-09-01 0.80 1992-10-01 0.67 1992-11-01 0.50 1992-12-01 0.37 1993-01-01 0.20 1993-02-01 -0.03 1993-03-01 -0.10 1993-04-01 -0.03 1993-05-01 -0.03 1993-06-01 0.00 1993-07-01 -0.07 1993-08-01 -0.07 1993-09-01 -0.10 1993-10-01 0.00 1993-11-01 -0.10 1993-12-01 -0.10 1994-01-01 0.00 1994-02-01 0.00 1994-03-01 0.03 1994-04-01 -0.07 1994-05-01 -0.17 1994-06-01 -0.17 1994-07-01 -0.10 1994-08-01 0.03 1994-09-01 0.00 1994-10-01 -0.10 1994-11-01 -0.17 1994-12-01 -0.13 1995-01-01 0.00 1995-02-01 -0.07 1995-03-01 0.03 1995-04-01 0.07 1995-05-01 0.17 1995-06-01 0.20 1995-07-01 0.17 1995-08-01 0.13 1995-09-01 0.13 1995-10-01 0.07 1995-11-01 0.07 1995-12-01 0.07 1996-01-01 0.17 1996-02-01 0.13 1996-03-01 0.10 1996-04-01 -0.03 1996-05-01 0.03 1996-06-01 -0.07 1996-07-01 0.00 1996-08-01 -0.17 1996-09-01 -0.03 1996-10-01 -0.07 1996-11-01 0.10 1996-12-01 0.07 1997-01-01 0.13 1997-02-01 0.13 1997-03-01 0.10 1997-04-01 -0.07 1997-05-01 -0.17 1997-06-01 -0.07 1997-07-01 -0.03 1997-08-01 0.03 1997-09-01 0.00 1997-10-01 -0.03 1997-11-01 -0.10 1997-12-01 -0.07 1998-01-01 -0.03 1998-02-01 0.00 1998-03-01 0.00 1998-04-01 -0.13 1998-05-01 -0.10 1998-06-01 -0.07 1998-07-01 0.07 1998-08-01 0.13 1998-09-01 0.17 1998-10-01 0.20 1998-11-01 0.17 1998-12-01 0.00 1999-01-01 -0.07 1999-02-01 0.00 1999-03-01 -0.03 1999-04-01 0.00 1999-05-01 -0.07 1999-06-01 0.03 1999-07-01 0.03 1999-08-01 0.03 1999-09-01 0.00 1999-10-01 -0.07 1999-11-01 -0.03 1999-12-01 -0.03 2000-01-01 -0.03 2000-02-01 0.00 2000-03-01 0.00 2000-04-01 -0.03 2000-05-01 0.00 2000-06-01 -0.03 2000-07-01 0.03 2000-08-01 0.03 2000-09-01 0.00 2000-10-01 -0.03 2000-11-01 -0.03 2000-12-01 0.03 2001-01-01 0.13 2001-02-01 0.20 2001-03-01 0.30 2001-04-01 0.40 2001-05-01 0.47 2001-06-01 0.53 2001-07-01 0.53 2001-08-01 0.70 2001-09-01 0.83 2001-10-01 1.13 2001-11-01 1.40 2001-12-01 1.63 2002-01-01 1.60 2002-02-01 1.50 2002-03-01 1.37 2002-04-01 1.40 2002-05-01 1.43 2002-06-01 1.40 2002-07-01 1.33 2002-08-01 1.13 2002-09-01 0.90 2002-10-01 0.57 2002-11-01 0.43 2002-12-01 0.30 2003-01-01 0.23 2003-02-01 0.20 2003-03-01 0.13 2003-04-01 0.13 2003-05-01 0.20 2003-06-01 0.40 2003-07-01 0.47 2003-08-01 0.47 2003-09-01 0.37 2003-10-01 0.30 2003-11-01 0.23 2003-12-01 0.03 2004-01-01 -0.10 2004-02-01 -0.10 2004-03-01 0.00 2004-04-01 0.00 2004-05-01 0.00 2004-06-01 -0.03 2004-07-01 -0.03 2004-08-01 -0.07 2004-09-01 -0.07 2004-10-01 0.00 2004-11-01 0.00 2004-12-01 0.00 2005-01-01 -0.10 2005-02-01 0.00 2005-03-01 -0.07 2005-04-01 0.00 2005-05-01 -0.10 2005-06-01 -0.07 2005-07-01 -0.07 2005-08-01 -0.07 2005-09-01 0.03 2005-10-01 0.03 2005-11-01 0.07 2005-12-01 -0.03 2006-01-01 -0.07 2006-02-01 -0.07 2006-03-01 -0.07 2006-04-01 0.00 2006-05-01 -0.07 2006-06-01 -0.03 2006-07-01 0.03 2006-08-01 0.07 2006-09-01 0.07 2006-10-01 -0.07 2006-11-01 -0.07 2006-12-01 -0.03 2007-01-01 0.07 2007-02-01 0.07 2007-03-01 0.03 2007-04-01 0.00 2007-05-01 0.00 2007-06-01 0.03 2007-07-01 0.07 2007-08-01 0.10 2007-09-01 0.17 2007-10-01 0.20 2007-11-01 0.23 2007-12-01 0.40 2008-01-01 0.40 2008-02-01 0.43 2008-03-01 0.47 2008-04-01 0.50 2008-05-01 0.73 2008-06-01 0.80 2008-07-01 0.97 2008-08-01 1.10 2008-09-01 1.27 2008-10-01 1.50 2008-11-01 1.70 2008-12-01 2.07 2009-01-01 2.37 2009-02-01 2.77 2009-03-01 3.13 2009-04-01 3.53 2009-05-01 3.73 2009-06-01 3.90 2009-07-01 3.80 2009-08-01 3.67 2009-09-01 3.57 2009-10-01 3.57 2009-11-01 3.47 2009-12-01 3.07 2010-01-01 2.57 2010-02-01 2.03 2010-03-01 1.53 2010-04-01 1.20 2010-05-01 0.80 2010-06-01 0.43 2010-07-01 0.13 2010-08-01 0.00 2010-09-01 0.03 2010-10-01 0.07 2010-11-01 0.13 2010-12-01 0.10 2011-01-01 -0.13 2011-02-01 -0.30 2011-03-01 -0.20 2011-04-01 0.00 2011-05-01 0.07 2011-06-01 0.20 2011-07-01 0.23 2011-08-01 0.23 2011-09-01 0.20 2011-10-01 0.17 2011-11-01 0.00 2011-12-01 -0.17 2012-01-01 -0.20 2012-02-01 -0.13 2012-03-01 -0.10 2012-04-01 -0.07 2012-05-01 -0.03 2012-06-01 0.00 2012-07-01 0.07 2012-08-01 0.03 2012-09-01 -0.10 2012-10-01 -0.13 2012-11-01 -0.13 2012-12-01 0.00 2013-01-01 0.00 2013-02-01 -0.03 2013-03-01 -0.07 2013-04-01 -0.13 2013-05-01 -0.03 2013-06-01 0.00 2013-07-01 -0.03 2013-08-01 -0.10 2013-09-01 -0.13 2013-10-01 -0.03 2013-11-01 -0.10 2013-12-01 -0.17 2014-01-01 -0.20 2014-02-01 -0.10 2014-03-01 0.00 2014-04-01 -0.10 2014-05-01 -0.13 2014-06-01 -0.20 2014-07-01 -0.03 2014-08-01 -0.07 2014-09-01 -0.07 2014-10-01 -0.13 2014-11-01 -0.10 2014-12-01 -0.10 2015-01-01 0.00 2015-02-01 -0.10 2015-03-01 -0.03 2015-04-01 -0.10 2015-05-01 0.00 2015-06-01 -0.07 2015-07-01 -0.03 2015-08-01 -0.13 2015-09-01 -0.07 2015-10-01 -0.10 2015-11-01 -0.03 2015-12-01 -0.03 2016-01-01 -0.03 2016-02-01 -0.03 2016-03-01 0.00 2016-04-01 0.03 2016-05-01 -0.03 2016-06-01 -0.03 2016-07-01 -0.03 2016-08-01 0.07 2016-09-01 0.10 2016-10-01 0.10 2016-11-01 0.00 2016-12-01 -0.07 2017-01-01 0.00 2017-02-01 0.03 2017-03-01 -0.03 2017-04-01 -0.13 2017-05-01 -0.13 2017-06-01 -0.03 2017-07-01 -0.03 2017-08-01 0.03 2017-09-01 -0.03 2017-10-01 -0.07 2017-11-01 -0.10 2017-12-01 -0.03 2018-01-01 0.00 2018-02-01 0.00 2018-03-01 0.00 2018-04-01 -0.07 2018-05-01 -0.10 2018-06-01 -0.03 2018-07-01 0.00 2018-08-01 0.03 2018-09-01 -0.07 2018-10-01 -0.07 2018-11-01 -0.07 2018-12-01 0.07 2019-01-01 0.13 2019-02-01 0.17 2019-03-01 0.13 2019-04-01 0.00 2019-05-01 -0.07 2019-06-01 -0.03 2019-07-01 0.03 2019-08-01 0.07 2019-09-01 0.00 2019-10-01 -0.03 2019-11-01 -0.07 2019-12-01 0.00 2020-01-01 0.00 2020-02-01 0.00 2020-03-01 0.30 2020-04-01 4.00 2020-05-01 7.27 2020-06-01 9.50 2020-07-01 8.00 2020-08-01 6.37 2020-09-01 5.30 2020-10-01 4.20 2020-11-01 3.63 2020-12-01 3.23 2021-01-01 3.03 2021-02-01 2.87 2021-03-01 2.33 2021-04-01 -0.07 2021-05-01 -0.13 2021-06-01 -0.03 2021-07-01 -0.23 2021-08-01 -0.20 2021-09-01 -0.37 2021-10-01 -0.27 2021-11-01 -0.33 2021-12-01 -0.27 2022-01-01 -0.20 2022-02-01 -0.13 2022-03-01 -0.10 2022-04-01 -0.13 2022-05-01 -0.07 2022-06-01 0.00 2022-07-01 -0.03 2022-08-01 0.03 2022-09-01 0.00 2022-10-01 0.07 2022-11-01 0.07 2022-12-01 0.03 2023-01-01 -0.07 2023-02-01 0.00 2023-03-01 0.00 2023-04-01 0.00 2023-05-01 0.03 2023-06-01 0.07 2023-07-01 0.10 2023-08-01 0.13 2023-09-01 0.20 2023-10-01 0.33 2023-11-01 0.30 2023-12-01 0.23 2024-01-01 0.20 2024-02-01 0.27 2024-03-01 0.30 2024-04-01 0.37