Table Data - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

Title	Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
Series ID	SAHMREALTIME
Source	Sahm, Claudia
Release	Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (Not a Press Release)
Seasonal Adjustment	Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency	Monthly
Units	Percentage Points
Date Range	1959-12-01 to 2024-10-01
Last Updated	2024-11-01 7:59 AM CDT
Notes	Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.

DATE	VALUE
1959-12-01	0.77
1960-01-01	0.50
1960-02-01	0.13
1960-03-01	0.10
1960-04-01	0.03
1960-05-01	0.07
1960-06-01	0.10
1960-07-01	0.23
1960-08-01	0.53
1960-09-01	0.60
1960-10-01	0.93
1960-11-01	1.07
1960-12-01	1.30
1961-01-01	1.40
1961-02-01	1.60
1961-03-01	1.63
1961-04-01	1.70
1961-05-01	1.67
1961-06-01	1.63
1961-07-01	1.53
1961-08-01	1.30
1961-09-01	1.20
1961-10-01	0.90
1961-11-01	0.50
1961-12-01	-0.07
1962-01-01	-0.30
1962-02-01	-0.17
1962-03-01	-0.17
1962-04-01	-0.10
1962-05-01	-0.07
1962-06-01	0.00
1962-07-01	-0.07
1962-08-01	0.13
1962-09-01	0.23
1962-10-01	0.30
1962-11-01	0.30
1962-12-01	0.07
1963-01-01	0.23
1963-02-01	0.33
1963-03-01	0.37
1963-04-01	0.33
1963-05-01	0.27
1963-06-01	0.30
1963-07-01	0.27
1963-08-01	0.07
1963-09-01	0.03
1963-10-01	0.00
1963-11-01	0.13
1963-12-01	0.13
1964-01-01	0.13
1964-02-01	-0.03
1964-03-01	-0.03
1964-04-01	-0.07
1964-05-01	-0.10
1964-06-01	-0.03
1964-07-01	-0.17
1964-08-01	0.00
1964-09-01	-0.03
1964-10-01	0.10
1964-11-01	0.07
1964-12-01	-0.03
1965-01-01	-0.13
1965-02-01	0.03
1965-03-01	-0.07
1965-04-01	0.03
1965-05-01	-0.10
1965-06-01	0.00
1965-07-01	-0.13
1965-08-01	-0.03
1965-09-01	-0.10
1965-10-01	-0.07
1965-11-01	-0.10
1965-12-01	-0.10
1966-01-01	-0.10
1966-02-01	-0.17
1966-03-01	-0.10
1966-04-01	-0.10
1966-05-01	0.10
1966-06-01	0.17
1966-07-01	0.23
1966-08-01	0.20
1966-09-01	0.13
1966-10-01	0.13
1966-11-01	0.07
1966-12-01	0.00
1967-01-01	-0.03
1967-02-01	0.07
1967-03-01	0.03
1967-04-01	0.03
1967-05-01	0.07
1967-06-01	0.20
1967-07-01	0.27
1967-08-01	0.27
1967-09-01	0.30
1967-10-01	0.43
1967-11-01	0.47
1967-12-01	0.27
1968-01-01	0.00
1968-02-01	-0.03
1968-03-01	-0.03
1968-04-01	0.00
1968-05-01	-0.07
1968-06-01	0.07
1968-07-01	0.13
1968-08-01	0.13
1968-09-01	0.07
1968-10-01	0.03
1968-11-01	-0.03
1968-12-01	-0.10
1969-01-01	-0.10
1969-02-01	-0.03
1969-03-01	0.03
1969-04-01	0.10
1969-05-01	0.17
1969-06-01	0.17
1969-07-01	0.20
1969-08-01	0.20
1969-09-01	0.40
1969-10-01	0.50
1969-11-01	0.47
1969-12-01	0.27
1970-01-01	0.30
1970-02-01	0.53
1970-03-01	0.80
1970-04-01	1.07
1970-05-01	1.27
1970-06-01	1.37
1970-07-01	1.43
1970-08-01	1.47
1970-09-01	1.60
1970-10-01	1.80
1970-11-01	2.03
1970-12-01	2.27
1971-01-01	2.37
1971-02-01	2.10
1971-03-01	1.77
1971-04-01	1.53
1971-05-01	1.43
1971-06-01	1.17
1971-07-01	0.97
1971-08-01	0.87
1971-09-01	0.80
1971-10-01	0.63
1971-11-01	0.33
1971-12-01	0.13
1972-01-01	0.03
1972-02-01	-0.07
1972-03-01	-0.03
1972-04-01	0.00
1972-05-01	0.07
1972-06-01	-0.07
1972-07-01	-0.13
1972-08-01	-0.10
1972-09-01	0.00
1972-10-01	0.00
1972-11-01	-0.13
1972-12-01	-0.13
1973-01-01	-0.17
1973-02-01	-0.03
1973-03-01	-0.03
1973-04-01	0.00
1973-05-01	-0.03
1973-06-01	-0.07
1973-07-01	-0.10
1973-08-01	-0.07
1973-09-01	0.00
1973-10-01	-0.07
1973-11-01	-0.03
1973-12-01	0.03
1974-01-01	0.23
1974-02-01	0.40
1974-03-01	0.50
1974-04-01	0.43
1974-05-01	0.43
1974-06-01	0.47
1974-07-01	0.57
1974-08-01	0.63
1974-09-01	0.83
1974-10-01	1.07
1974-11-01	1.43
1974-12-01	1.83
1975-01-01	2.37
1975-02-01	2.77
1975-03-01	3.27
1975-04-01	3.50
1975-05-01	3.83
1975-06-01	3.77
1975-07-01	3.50
1975-08-01	3.17
1975-09-01	2.87
1975-10-01	2.70
1975-11-01	2.27
1975-12-01	1.80
1976-01-01	0.93
1976-02-01	0.20
1976-03-01	-0.27
1976-04-01	-0.10
1976-05-01	-0.10
1976-06-01	0.00
1976-07-01	0.10
1976-08-01	0.30
1976-09-01	0.40
1976-10-01	0.43
1976-11-01	0.50
1976-12-01	0.47
1977-01-01	0.27
1977-02-01	0.10
1977-03-01	-0.07
1977-04-01	-0.10
1977-05-01	-0.20
1977-06-01	-0.07
1977-07-01	-0.03
1977-08-01	0.07
1977-09-01	0.00
1977-10-01	0.03
1977-11-01	-0.03
1977-12-01	-0.13
1978-01-01	-0.17
1978-02-01	-0.20
1978-03-01	-0.07
1978-04-01	-0.10
1978-05-01	0.00
1978-06-01	-0.17
1978-07-01	0.07
1978-08-01	0.00
1978-09-01	0.10
1978-10-01	-0.03
1978-11-01	-0.03
1978-12-01	0.00
1979-01-01	0.00
1979-02-01	-0.03
1979-03-01	-0.07
1979-04-01	0.00
1979-05-01	0.03
1979-06-01	0.00
1979-07-01	-0.03
1979-08-01	0.07
1979-09-01	0.13
1979-10-01	0.23
1979-11-01	0.17
1979-12-01	0.13
1980-01-01	0.23
1980-02-01	0.30
1980-03-01	0.40
1980-04-01	0.67
1980-05-01	1.27
1980-06-01	1.77
1980-07-01	2.03
1980-08-01	1.93
1980-09-01	1.83
1980-10-01	1.73
1980-11-01	1.70
1980-12-01	1.57
1981-01-01	1.40
1981-02-01	1.23
1981-03-01	1.10
1981-04-01	0.83
1981-05-01	0.47
1981-06-01	0.10
1981-07-01	0.00
1981-08-01	-0.13
1981-09-01	0.07
1981-10-01	0.40
1981-11-01	0.80
1981-12-01	1.07
1982-01-01	1.23
1982-02-01	1.40
1982-03-01	1.47
1982-04-01	1.77
1982-05-01	2.00
1982-06-01	2.17
1982-07-01	2.30
1982-08-01	2.40
1982-09-01	2.53
1982-10-01	2.47
1982-11-01	2.47
1982-12-01	2.37
1983-01-01	2.13
1983-02-01	1.87
1983-03-01	1.57
1983-04-01	1.27
1983-05-01	0.97
1983-06-01	0.70
1983-07-01	0.30
1983-08-01	-0.07
1983-09-01	-0.23
1983-10-01	-0.23
1983-11-01	-0.37
1983-12-01	-0.33
1984-01-01	-0.27
1984-02-01	-0.20
1984-03-01	-0.13
1984-04-01	-0.07
1984-05-01	-0.10
1984-06-01	-0.23
1984-07-01	-0.10
1984-08-01	0.00
1984-09-01	0.10
1984-10-01	0.07
1984-11-01	-0.03
1984-12-01	-0.07
1985-01-01	0.03
1985-02-01	0.10
1985-03-01	0.13
1985-04-01	0.10
1985-05-01	0.10
1985-06-01	0.10
1985-07-01	0.10
1985-08-01	0.00
1985-09-01	-0.07
1985-10-01	-0.07
1985-11-01	0.00
1985-12-01	-0.07
1986-01-01	-0.13
1986-02-01	0.10
1986-03-01	0.20
1986-04-01	0.33
1986-05-01	0.33
1986-06-01	0.30
1986-07-01	0.23
1986-08-01	0.07
1986-09-01	0.03
1986-10-01	0.07
1986-11-01	0.13
1986-12-01	-0.07
1987-01-01	-0.07
1987-02-01	-0.07
1987-03-01	-0.03
1987-04-01	-0.13
1987-05-01	-0.13
1987-06-01	-0.17
1987-07-01	-0.10
1987-08-01	-0.10
1987-09-01	-0.07
1987-10-01	0.00
1987-11-01	-0.03
1987-12-01	-0.03
1988-01-01	-0.07
1988-02-01	-0.07
1988-03-01	-0.07
1988-04-01	-0.13
1988-05-01	-0.03
1988-06-01	-0.10
1988-07-01	0.00
1988-08-01	0.00
1988-09-01	0.03
1988-10-01	0.00
1988-11-01	-0.07
1988-12-01	-0.03
1989-01-01	0.03
1989-02-01	-0.07
1989-03-01	-0.10
1989-04-01	-0.03
1989-05-01	0.03
1989-06-01	0.13
1989-07-01	0.10
1989-08-01	0.10
1989-09-01	0.10
1989-10-01	0.13
1989-11-01	0.20
1989-12-01	0.13
1990-01-01	0.13
1990-02-01	0.13
1990-03-01	0.10
1990-04-01	0.13
1990-05-01	0.13
1990-06-01	0.03
1990-07-01	0.07
1990-08-01	0.17
1990-09-01	0.33
1990-10-01	0.40
1990-11-01	0.50
1990-12-01	0.60
1991-01-01	0.77
1991-02-01	0.97
1991-03-01	1.20
1991-04-01	1.30
1991-05-01	1.43
1991-06-01	1.50
1991-07-01	1.53
1991-08-01	1.40
1991-09-01	1.17
1991-10-01	1.10
1991-11-01	1.00
1991-12-01	1.00
1992-01-01	0.93
1992-02-01	0.90
1992-03-01	0.77
1992-04-01	0.67
1992-05-01	0.63
1992-06-01	0.73
1992-07-01	0.87
1992-08-01	0.90
1992-09-01	0.80
1992-10-01	0.67
1992-11-01	0.50
1992-12-01	0.37
1993-01-01	0.20
1993-02-01	-0.03
1993-03-01	-0.10
1993-04-01	-0.03
1993-05-01	-0.03
1993-06-01	0.00
1993-07-01	-0.07
1993-08-01	-0.07
1993-09-01	-0.10
1993-10-01	0.00
1993-11-01	-0.10
1993-12-01	-0.10
1994-01-01	0.00
1994-02-01	0.00
1994-03-01	0.03
1994-04-01	-0.07
1994-05-01	-0.17
1994-06-01	-0.17
1994-07-01	-0.10
1994-08-01	0.03
1994-09-01	0.00
1994-10-01	-0.10
1994-11-01	-0.17
1994-12-01	-0.13
1995-01-01	0.00
1995-02-01	-0.07
1995-03-01	0.03
1995-04-01	0.07
1995-05-01	0.17
1995-06-01	0.20
1995-07-01	0.17
1995-08-01	0.13
1995-09-01	0.13
1995-10-01	0.07
1995-11-01	0.07
1995-12-01	0.07
1996-01-01	0.17
1996-02-01	0.13
1996-03-01	0.10
1996-04-01	-0.03
1996-05-01	0.03
1996-06-01	-0.07
1996-07-01	0.00
1996-08-01	-0.17
1996-09-01	-0.03
1996-10-01	-0.07
1996-11-01	0.10
1996-12-01	0.07
1997-01-01	0.13
1997-02-01	0.13
1997-03-01	0.10
1997-04-01	-0.07
1997-05-01	-0.17
1997-06-01	-0.07
1997-07-01	-0.03
1997-08-01	0.03
1997-09-01	0.00
1997-10-01	-0.03
1997-11-01	-0.10
1997-12-01	-0.07
1998-01-01	-0.03
1998-02-01	0.00
1998-03-01	0.00
1998-04-01	-0.13
1998-05-01	-0.10
1998-06-01	-0.07
1998-07-01	0.07
1998-08-01	0.13
1998-09-01	0.17
1998-10-01	0.20
1998-11-01	0.17
1998-12-01	0.00
1999-01-01	-0.07
1999-02-01	0.00
1999-03-01	-0.03
1999-04-01	0.00
1999-05-01	-0.07
1999-06-01	0.03
1999-07-01	0.03
1999-08-01	0.03
1999-09-01	0.00
1999-10-01	-0.07
1999-11-01	-0.03
1999-12-01	-0.03
2000-01-01	-0.03
2000-02-01	0.00
2000-03-01	0.00
2000-04-01	-0.03
2000-05-01	0.00
2000-06-01	-0.03
2000-07-01	0.03
2000-08-01	0.03
2000-09-01	0.00
2000-10-01	-0.03
2000-11-01	-0.03
2000-12-01	0.03
2001-01-01	0.13
2001-02-01	0.20
2001-03-01	0.30
2001-04-01	0.40
2001-05-01	0.47
2001-06-01	0.53
2001-07-01	0.53
2001-08-01	0.70
2001-09-01	0.83
2001-10-01	1.13
2001-11-01	1.40
2001-12-01	1.63
2002-01-01	1.60
2002-02-01	1.50
2002-03-01	1.37
2002-04-01	1.40
2002-05-01	1.43
2002-06-01	1.40
2002-07-01	1.33
2002-08-01	1.13
2002-09-01	0.90
2002-10-01	0.57
2002-11-01	0.43
2002-12-01	0.30
2003-01-01	0.23
2003-02-01	0.20
2003-03-01	0.13
2003-04-01	0.13
2003-05-01	0.20
2003-06-01	0.40
2003-07-01	0.47
2003-08-01	0.47
2003-09-01	0.37
2003-10-01	0.30
2003-11-01	0.23
2003-12-01	0.03
2004-01-01	-0.10
2004-02-01	-0.10
2004-03-01	0.00
2004-04-01	0.00
2004-05-01	0.00
2004-06-01	-0.03
2004-07-01	-0.03
2004-08-01	-0.07
2004-09-01	-0.07
2004-10-01	0.00
2004-11-01	0.00
2004-12-01	0.00
2005-01-01	-0.10
2005-02-01	0.00
2005-03-01	-0.07
2005-04-01	0.00
2005-05-01	-0.10
2005-06-01	-0.07
2005-07-01	-0.07
2005-08-01	-0.07
2005-09-01	0.03
2005-10-01	0.03
2005-11-01	0.07
2005-12-01	-0.03
2006-01-01	-0.07
2006-02-01	-0.07
2006-03-01	-0.07
2006-04-01	0.00
2006-05-01	-0.07
2006-06-01	-0.03
2006-07-01	0.03
2006-08-01	0.07
2006-09-01	0.07
2006-10-01	-0.07
2006-11-01	-0.07
2006-12-01	-0.03
2007-01-01	0.07
2007-02-01	0.07
2007-03-01	0.03
2007-04-01	0.00
2007-05-01	0.00
2007-06-01	0.03
2007-07-01	0.07
2007-08-01	0.10
2007-09-01	0.17
2007-10-01	0.20
2007-11-01	0.23
2007-12-01	0.40
2008-01-01	0.40
2008-02-01	0.43
2008-03-01	0.47
2008-04-01	0.50
2008-05-01	0.73
2008-06-01	0.80
2008-07-01	0.97
2008-08-01	1.10
2008-09-01	1.27
2008-10-01	1.50
2008-11-01	1.70
2008-12-01	2.07
2009-01-01	2.37
2009-02-01	2.77
2009-03-01	3.13
2009-04-01	3.53
2009-05-01	3.73
2009-06-01	3.90
2009-07-01	3.80
2009-08-01	3.67
2009-09-01	3.57
2009-10-01	3.57
2009-11-01	3.47
2009-12-01	3.07
2010-01-01	2.57
2010-02-01	2.03
2010-03-01	1.53
2010-04-01	1.20
2010-05-01	0.80
2010-06-01	0.43
2010-07-01	0.13
2010-08-01	0.00
2010-09-01	0.03
2010-10-01	0.07
2010-11-01	0.13
2010-12-01	0.10
2011-01-01	-0.13
2011-02-01	-0.30
2011-03-01	-0.20
2011-04-01	0.00
2011-05-01	0.07
2011-06-01	0.20
2011-07-01	0.23
2011-08-01	0.23
2011-09-01	0.20
2011-10-01	0.17
2011-11-01	0.00
2011-12-01	-0.17
2012-01-01	-0.20
2012-02-01	-0.13
2012-03-01	-0.10
2012-04-01	-0.07
2012-05-01	-0.03
2012-06-01	0.00
2012-07-01	0.07
2012-08-01	0.03
2012-09-01	-0.10
2012-10-01	-0.13
2012-11-01	-0.13
2012-12-01	0.00
2013-01-01	0.00
2013-02-01	-0.03
2013-03-01	-0.07
2013-04-01	-0.13
2013-05-01	-0.03
2013-06-01	0.00
2013-07-01	-0.03
2013-08-01	-0.10
2013-09-01	-0.13
2013-10-01	-0.03
2013-11-01	-0.10
2013-12-01	-0.17
2014-01-01	-0.20
2014-02-01	-0.10
2014-03-01	0.00
2014-04-01	-0.10
2014-05-01	-0.13
2014-06-01	-0.20
2014-07-01	-0.03
2014-08-01	-0.07
2014-09-01	-0.07
2014-10-01	-0.13
2014-11-01	-0.10
2014-12-01	-0.10
2015-01-01	0.00
2015-02-01	-0.10
2015-03-01	-0.03
2015-04-01	-0.10
2015-05-01	0.00
2015-06-01	-0.07
2015-07-01	-0.03
2015-08-01	-0.13
2015-09-01	-0.07
2015-10-01	-0.10
2015-11-01	-0.03
2015-12-01	-0.03
2016-01-01	-0.03
2016-02-01	-0.03
2016-03-01	0.00
2016-04-01	0.03
2016-05-01	-0.03
2016-06-01	-0.03
2016-07-01	-0.03
2016-08-01	0.07
2016-09-01	0.10
2016-10-01	0.10
2016-11-01	0.00
2016-12-01	-0.07
2017-01-01	0.00
2017-02-01	0.03
2017-03-01	-0.03
2017-04-01	-0.13
2017-05-01	-0.13
2017-06-01	-0.03
2017-07-01	-0.03
2017-08-01	0.03
2017-09-01	-0.03
2017-10-01	-0.07
2017-11-01	-0.10
2017-12-01	-0.03
2018-01-01	0.00
2018-02-01	0.00
2018-03-01	0.00
2018-04-01	-0.07
2018-05-01	-0.10
2018-06-01	-0.03
2018-07-01	0.00
2018-08-01	0.03
2018-09-01	-0.07
2018-10-01	-0.07
2018-11-01	-0.07
2018-12-01	0.07
2019-01-01	0.13
2019-02-01	0.17
2019-03-01	0.13
2019-04-01	0.00
2019-05-01	-0.07
2019-06-01	-0.03
2019-07-01	0.03
2019-08-01	0.07
2019-09-01	0.00
2019-10-01	-0.03
2019-11-01	-0.07
2019-12-01	0.00
2020-01-01	0.00
2020-02-01	0.00
2020-03-01	0.30
2020-04-01	4.00
2020-05-01	7.27
2020-06-01	9.50
2020-07-01	8.00
2020-08-01	6.37
2020-09-01	5.30
2020-10-01	4.20
2020-11-01	3.63
2020-12-01	3.23
2021-01-01	3.03
2021-02-01	2.87
2021-03-01	2.33
2021-04-01	-0.07
2021-05-01	-0.13
2021-06-01	-0.03
2021-07-01	-0.23
2021-08-01	-0.20
2021-09-01	-0.37
2021-10-01	-0.27
2021-11-01	-0.33
2021-12-01	-0.27
2022-01-01	-0.20
2022-02-01	-0.13
2022-03-01	-0.10
2022-04-01	-0.13
2022-05-01	-0.07
2022-06-01	0.00
2022-07-01	-0.03
2022-08-01	0.03
2022-09-01	0.00
2022-10-01	0.07
2022-11-01	0.07
2022-12-01	0.03
2023-01-01	-0.07
2023-02-01	0.00
2023-03-01	0.00
2023-04-01	0.00
2023-05-01	0.03
2023-06-01	0.07
2023-07-01	0.10
2023-08-01	0.13
2023-09-01	0.20
2023-10-01	0.33
2023-11-01	0.30
2023-12-01	0.23
2024-01-01	0.20
2024-02-01	0.27
2024-03-01	0.30
2024-04-01	0.37
2024-05-01	0.37
2024-06-01	0.43
2024-07-01	0.53
2024-08-01	0.57
2024-09-01	0.50
2024-10-01	0.43

Filter 0