Table Data - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

Title	Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Series ID	RECPROUSM156N
Source	Chauvet, Marcelle, Piger, Jeremy Max
Release	U.S. Recession Probabilities
Seasonal Adjustment	Not Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency	Monthly
Units	Percent
Date Range	1967-06-01 to 2025-02-01
Last Updated	2025-04-08 2:36 PM CDT
Notes	Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3.

DATE	VALUE
1967-06-01	0.72
1967-07-01	0.36
1967-08-01	0.02
1967-09-01	0.38
1967-10-01	0.04
1967-11-01	0.00
1967-12-01	0.04
1968-01-01	1.34
1968-02-01	0.04
1968-03-01	0.02
1968-04-01	0.06
1968-05-01	0.00
1968-06-01	0.02
1968-07-01	0.02
1968-08-01	0.04
1968-09-01	0.02
1968-10-01	0.00
1968-11-01	0.00
1968-12-01	0.12
1969-01-01	0.02
1969-02-01	0.04
1969-03-01	0.02
1969-04-01	0.20
1969-05-01	0.04
1969-06-01	0.02
1969-07-01	0.10
1969-08-01	0.50
1969-09-01	4.22
1969-10-01	6.46
1969-11-01	35.26
1969-12-01	39.38
1970-01-01	50.22
1970-02-01	39.62
1970-03-01	40.00
1970-04-01	43.34
1970-05-01	40.64
1970-06-01	39.10
1970-07-01	39.52
1970-08-01	58.22
1970-09-01	77.50
1970-10-01	86.12
1970-11-01	31.52
1970-12-01	0.00
1971-01-01	0.04
1971-02-01	1.52
1971-03-01	0.40
1971-04-01	0.02
1971-05-01	0.00
1971-06-01	0.18
1971-07-01	0.36
1971-08-01	0.14
1971-09-01	0.00
1971-10-01	0.00
1971-11-01	0.00
1971-12-01	0.00
1972-01-01	0.00
1972-02-01	0.00
1972-03-01	0.00
1972-04-01	0.00
1972-05-01	0.02
1972-06-01	0.02
1972-07-01	0.24
1972-08-01	0.00
1972-09-01	0.00
1972-10-01	0.02
1972-11-01	0.02
1972-12-01	0.00
1973-01-01	0.00
1973-02-01	0.02
1973-03-01	0.50
1973-04-01	0.38
1973-05-01	0.06
1973-06-01	0.04
1973-07-01	0.06
1973-08-01	0.18
1973-09-01	0.02
1973-10-01	0.04
1973-11-01	1.10
1973-12-01	29.84
1974-01-01	33.44
1974-02-01	28.42
1974-03-01	25.82
1974-04-01	24.84
1974-05-01	23.66
1974-06-01	36.26
1974-07-01	47.80
1974-08-01	80.30
1974-09-01	84.38
1974-10-01	94.36
1974-11-01	100.00
1974-12-01	100.00
1975-01-01	99.92
1975-02-01	99.68
1975-03-01	94.70
1975-04-01	18.74
1975-05-01	2.28
1975-06-01	0.60
1975-07-01	0.02
1975-08-01	0.00
1975-09-01	0.00
1975-10-01	0.02
1975-11-01	0.04
1975-12-01	0.00
1976-01-01	0.00
1976-02-01	0.06
1976-03-01	0.04
1976-04-01	0.02
1976-05-01	0.06
1976-06-01	0.06
1976-07-01	0.00
1976-08-01	0.00
1976-09-01	0.10
1976-10-01	0.16
1976-11-01	0.00
1976-12-01	0.00
1977-01-01	0.44
1977-02-01	0.02
1977-03-01	0.00
1977-04-01	0.02
1977-05-01	0.00
1977-06-01	0.00
1977-07-01	0.00
1977-08-01	0.06
1977-09-01	0.00
1977-10-01	0.02
1977-11-01	0.12
1977-12-01	1.06
1978-01-01	13.06
1978-02-01	0.08
1978-03-01	0.00
1978-04-01	0.00
1978-05-01	0.14
1978-06-01	0.06
1978-07-01	0.20
1978-08-01	0.04
1978-09-01	0.04
1978-10-01	0.00
1978-11-01	0.00
1978-12-01	0.08
1979-01-01	1.48
1979-02-01	0.66
1979-03-01	0.92
1979-04-01	29.40
1979-05-01	1.10
1979-06-01	1.36
1979-07-01	2.54
1979-08-01	2.88
1979-09-01	2.36
1979-10-01	1.98
1979-11-01	2.88
1979-12-01	4.20
1980-01-01	7.92
1980-02-01	40.92
1980-03-01	88.64
1980-04-01	99.78
1980-05-01	99.80
1980-06-01	86.72
1980-07-01	32.98
1980-08-01	0.44
1980-09-01	0.00
1980-10-01	0.00
1980-11-01	0.00
1980-12-01	0.26
1981-01-01	2.40
1981-02-01	1.74
1981-03-01	0.96
1981-04-01	0.98
1981-05-01	0.88
1981-06-01	1.16
1981-07-01	3.06
1981-08-01	47.56
1981-09-01	82.68
1981-10-01	94.34
1981-11-01	96.52
1981-12-01	96.76
1982-01-01	94.12
1982-02-01	11.50
1982-03-01	64.20
1982-04-01	77.02
1982-05-01	80.26
1982-06-01	83.46
1982-07-01	84.00
1982-08-01	82.80
1982-09-01	79.24
1982-10-01	75.76
1982-11-01	40.28
1982-12-01	14.52
1983-01-01	0.74
1983-02-01	1.60
1983-03-01	0.06
1983-04-01	0.00
1983-05-01	0.00
1983-06-01	0.00
1983-07-01	0.00
1983-08-01	0.14
1983-09-01	0.00
1983-10-01	0.02
1983-11-01	0.04
1983-12-01	0.00
1984-01-01	0.00
1984-02-01	0.00
1984-03-01	0.00
1984-04-01	0.02
1984-05-01	0.04
1984-06-01	0.02
1984-07-01	0.06
1984-08-01	0.10
1984-09-01	0.08
1984-10-01	0.12
1984-11-01	0.00
1984-12-01	0.04
1985-01-01	0.12
1985-02-01	0.06
1985-03-01	0.00
1985-04-01	0.14
1985-05-01	0.02
1985-06-01	0.24
1985-07-01	0.22
1985-08-01	0.04
1985-09-01	0.00
1985-10-01	0.18
1985-11-01	0.06
1985-12-01	0.02
1986-01-01	0.04
1986-02-01	0.52
1986-03-01	0.54
1986-04-01	0.10
1986-05-01	0.24
1986-06-01	0.30
1986-07-01	0.02
1986-08-01	0.02
1986-09-01	0.02
1986-10-01	0.08
1986-11-01	0.04
1986-12-01	0.02
1987-01-01	0.72
1987-02-01	0.00
1987-03-01	0.02
1987-04-01	0.04
1987-05-01	0.02
1987-06-01	0.00
1987-07-01	0.00
1987-08-01	0.02
1987-09-01	0.06
1987-10-01	0.00
1987-11-01	0.02
1987-12-01	0.02
1988-01-01	0.38
1988-02-01	0.04
1988-03-01	0.02
1988-04-01	0.04
1988-05-01	0.06
1988-06-01	0.02
1988-07-01	0.04
1988-08-01	0.02
1988-09-01	0.06
1988-10-01	0.02
1988-11-01	0.00
1988-12-01	0.00
1989-01-01	0.06
1989-02-01	0.50
1989-03-01	0.38
1989-04-01	0.74
1989-05-01	1.12
1989-06-01	0.78
1989-07-01	1.06
1989-08-01	0.04
1989-09-01	0.16
1989-10-01	0.18
1989-11-01	0.04
1989-12-01	0.06
1990-01-01	0.18
1990-02-01	0.04
1990-03-01	0.30
1990-04-01	0.84
1990-05-01	1.00
1990-06-01	2.26
1990-07-01	9.72
1990-08-01	18.94
1990-09-01	36.94
1990-10-01	60.28
1990-11-01	64.20
1990-12-01	62.82
1991-01-01	61.58
1991-02-01	54.30
1991-03-01	35.88
1991-04-01	4.66
1991-05-01	0.44
1991-06-01	0.08
1991-07-01	0.20
1991-08-01	0.34
1991-09-01	0.22
1991-10-01	0.42
1991-11-01	0.46
1991-12-01	0.48
1992-01-01	0.16
1992-02-01	0.04
1992-03-01	0.04
1992-04-01	0.02
1992-05-01	0.08
1992-06-01	0.02
1992-07-01	0.04
1992-08-01	0.38
1992-09-01	0.22
1992-10-01	0.04
1992-11-01	0.02
1992-12-01	0.02
1993-01-01	0.02
1993-02-01	0.14
1993-03-01	0.82
1993-04-01	0.10
1993-05-01	0.04
1993-06-01	0.02
1993-07-01	0.04
1993-08-01	0.06
1993-09-01	0.02
1993-10-01	0.04
1993-11-01	0.00
1993-12-01	0.00
1994-01-01	0.06
1994-02-01	0.06
1994-03-01	0.00
1994-04-01	0.00
1994-05-01	0.04
1994-06-01	0.04
1994-07-01	0.04
1994-08-01	0.00
1994-09-01	0.00
1994-10-01	0.00
1994-11-01	0.04
1994-12-01	0.04
1995-01-01	0.08
1995-02-01	0.26
1995-03-01	0.16
1995-04-01	0.14
1995-05-01	0.00
1995-06-01	0.02
1995-07-01	0.28
1995-08-01	0.00
1995-09-01	0.04
1995-10-01	0.10
1995-11-01	0.04
1995-12-01	0.04
1996-01-01	0.42
1996-02-01	0.00
1996-03-01	0.04
1996-04-01	0.00
1996-05-01	0.02
1996-06-01	0.02
1996-07-01	0.08
1996-08-01	0.02
1996-09-01	0.04
1996-10-01	0.02
1996-11-01	0.00
1996-12-01	0.00
1997-01-01	0.00
1997-02-01	0.00
1997-03-01	0.02
1997-04-01	0.02
1997-05-01	0.00
1997-06-01	0.00
1997-07-01	0.00
1997-08-01	0.02
1997-09-01	0.00
1997-10-01	0.00
1997-11-01	0.00
1997-12-01	0.02
1998-01-01	0.02
1998-02-01	0.00
1998-03-01	0.00
1998-04-01	0.02
1998-05-01	0.04
1998-06-01	0.62
1998-07-01	0.42
1998-08-01	0.00
1998-09-01	0.02
1998-10-01	0.00
1998-11-01	0.04
1998-12-01	0.00
1999-01-01	0.06
1999-02-01	0.00
1999-03-01	0.08
1999-04-01	0.04
1999-05-01	0.00
1999-06-01	0.04
1999-07-01	0.00
1999-08-01	0.04
1999-09-01	0.16
1999-10-01	0.02
1999-11-01	0.02
1999-12-01	0.00
2000-01-01	0.02
2000-02-01	0.18
2000-03-01	0.00
2000-04-01	0.02
2000-05-01	0.18
2000-06-01	0.36
2000-07-01	0.40
2000-08-01	0.46
2000-09-01	0.70
2000-10-01	3.04
2000-11-01	4.76
2000-12-01	9.36
2001-01-01	17.34
2001-02-01	23.28
2001-03-01	29.16
2001-04-01	35.40
2001-05-01	35.04
2001-06-01	35.50
2001-07-01	34.12
2001-08-01	32.48
2001-09-01	32.70
2001-10-01	25.34
2001-11-01	19.42
2001-12-01	8.46
2002-01-01	3.56
2002-02-01	2.28
2002-03-01	0.68
2002-04-01	0.34
2002-05-01	0.20
2002-06-01	0.24
2002-07-01	1.00
2002-08-01	0.58
2002-09-01	0.56
2002-10-01	0.50
2002-11-01	0.38
2002-12-01	1.14
2003-01-01	0.40
2003-02-01	0.90
2003-03-01	0.80
2003-04-01	0.60
2003-05-01	0.14
2003-06-01	0.12
2003-07-01	0.06
2003-08-01	0.08
2003-09-01	0.02
2003-10-01	0.02
2003-11-01	0.04
2003-12-01	0.16
2004-01-01	0.08
2004-02-01	0.02
2004-03-01	0.06
2004-04-01	0.06
2004-05-01	0.12
2004-06-01	0.98
2004-07-01	0.14
2004-08-01	0.10
2004-09-01	0.04
2004-10-01	0.04
2004-11-01	0.14
2004-12-01	0.02
2005-01-01	0.04
2005-02-01	0.08
2005-03-01	0.20
2005-04-01	0.04
2005-05-01	0.02
2005-06-01	0.02
2005-07-01	0.70
2005-08-01	1.76
2005-09-01	9.74
2005-10-01	0.08
2005-11-01	0.00
2005-12-01	0.02
2006-01-01	0.00
2006-02-01	0.08
2006-03-01	0.08
2006-04-01	0.12
2006-05-01	0.18
2006-06-01	0.08
2006-07-01	0.14
2006-08-01	0.10
2006-09-01	0.18
2006-10-01	0.10
2006-11-01	0.10
2006-12-01	0.00
2007-01-01	0.20
2007-02-01	0.04
2007-03-01	0.02
2007-04-01	0.02
2007-05-01	0.16
2007-06-01	0.26
2007-07-01	0.44
2007-08-01	0.36
2007-09-01	0.46
2007-10-01	0.96
2007-11-01	1.76
2007-12-01	6.78
2008-01-01	20.10
2008-02-01	45.50
2008-03-01	63.42
2008-04-01	77.50
2008-05-01	85.14
2008-06-01	90.20
2008-07-01	96.34
2008-08-01	99.62
2008-09-01	99.94
2008-10-01	90.70
2008-11-01	99.94
2008-12-01	100.00
2009-01-01	100.00
2009-02-01	99.92
2009-03-01	99.90
2009-04-01	97.86
2009-05-01	90.94
2009-06-01	66.84
2009-07-01	3.14
2009-08-01	0.60
2009-09-01	0.28
2009-10-01	0.20
2009-11-01	0.08
2009-12-01	0.04
2010-01-01	0.02
2010-02-01	0.04
2010-03-01	0.00
2010-04-01	0.00
2010-05-01	0.00
2010-06-01	0.30
2010-07-01	0.04
2010-08-01	0.00
2010-09-01	0.00
2010-10-01	0.06
2010-11-01	0.06
2010-12-01	0.00
2011-01-01	0.08
2011-02-01	0.18
2011-03-01	0.06
2011-04-01	0.16
2011-05-01	0.16
2011-06-01	0.04
2011-07-01	0.02
2011-08-01	0.00
2011-09-01	0.02
2011-10-01	0.02
2011-11-01	0.08
2011-12-01	0.00
2012-01-01	0.00
2012-02-01	0.02
2012-03-01	0.28
2012-04-01	0.08
2012-05-01	0.10
2012-06-01	0.16
2012-07-01	0.18
2012-08-01	0.20
2012-09-01	0.04
2012-10-01	0.04
2012-11-01	0.02
2012-12-01	0.04
2013-01-01	0.00
2013-02-01	0.04
2013-03-01	0.06
2013-04-01	0.08
2013-05-01	0.08
2013-06-01	0.22
2013-07-01	0.42
2013-08-01	0.08
2013-09-01	0.00
2013-10-01	0.08
2013-11-01	0.02
2013-12-01	0.10
2014-01-01	0.22
2014-02-01	0.02
2014-03-01	0.00
2014-04-01	0.00
2014-05-01	0.00
2014-06-01	0.00
2014-07-01	0.02
2014-08-01	0.04
2014-09-01	0.02
2014-10-01	0.02
2014-11-01	0.02
2014-12-01	0.16
2015-01-01	0.78
2015-02-01	1.18
2015-03-01	0.90
2015-04-01	0.68
2015-05-01	0.64
2015-06-01	0.52
2015-07-01	0.36
2015-08-01	0.46
2015-09-01	0.32
2015-10-01	0.54
2015-11-01	0.92
2015-12-01	0.56
2016-01-01	0.36
2016-02-01	0.50
2016-03-01	0.74
2016-04-01	0.44
2016-05-01	0.46
2016-06-01	0.14
2016-07-01	0.08
2016-08-01	0.18
2016-09-01	0.10
2016-10-01	0.18
2016-11-01	0.10
2016-12-01	0.02
2017-01-01	0.16
2017-02-01	0.20
2017-03-01	0.02
2017-04-01	0.00
2017-05-01	0.02
2017-06-01	0.12
2017-07-01	0.16
2017-08-01	0.20
2017-09-01	0.04
2017-10-01	0.00
2017-11-01	0.02
2017-12-01	0.08
2018-01-01	0.16
2018-02-01	0.02
2018-03-01	0.04
2018-04-01	0.02
2018-05-01	0.18
2018-06-01	0.04
2018-07-01	0.02
2018-08-01	0.04
2018-09-01	0.22
2018-10-01	0.18
2018-11-01	0.08
2018-12-01	0.14
2019-01-01	1.00
2019-02-01	1.00
2019-03-01	0.58
2019-04-01	0.62
2019-05-01	0.26
2019-06-01	0.28
2019-07-01	0.50
2019-08-01	0.20
2019-09-01	0.86
2019-10-01	1.46
2019-11-01	0.34
2019-12-01	0.50
2020-01-01	0.20
2020-02-01	0.08
2020-03-01	100.00
2020-04-01	100.00
2020-05-01	0.08
2020-06-01	0.06
2020-07-01	0.00
2020-08-01	0.00
2020-09-01	0.00
2020-10-01	0.04
2020-11-01	0.32
2020-12-01	0.04
2021-01-01	0.02
2021-02-01	0.00
2021-03-01	0.00
2021-04-01	0.10
2021-05-01	0.06
2021-06-01	0.00
2021-07-01	0.00
2021-08-01	0.52
2021-09-01	0.56
2021-10-01	0.04
2021-11-01	0.04
2021-12-01	0.28
2022-01-01	0.26
2022-02-01	0.00
2022-03-01	0.02
2022-04-01	0.44
2022-05-01	0.46
2022-06-01	0.24
2022-07-01	0.06
2022-08-01	0.16
2022-09-01	0.10
2022-10-01	0.32
2022-11-01	0.84
2022-12-01	1.02
2023-01-01	0.04
2023-02-01	0.10
2023-03-01	0.24
2023-04-01	0.18
2023-05-01	0.16
2023-06-01	0.18
2023-07-01	0.06
2023-08-01	0.16
2023-09-01	0.20
2023-10-01	0.48
2023-11-01	0.12
2023-12-01	0.22
2024-01-01	0.70
2024-02-01	0.04
2024-03-01	0.22
2024-04-01	0.16
2024-05-01	0.10
2024-06-01	0.14
2024-07-01	0.36
2024-08-01	0.12
2024-09-01	0.20
2024-10-01	0.30
2024-11-01	0.06
2024-12-01	0.02
2025-01-01	0.26
2025-02-01	0.38

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