NOTE: THIS DATA FILE WILL CHANGE! To improve accessibility of data for all users, we will convert this file from a text format to an html table by the end of June 2024. Title: Brave-Butters-Kelley Leading Index Series ID: BBKQLEIX Source: Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center Release: Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted Frequency: Quarterly Units: Standard Deviations Date Range: 1960-01-01 to 2024-01-01 Last Updated: 2024-04-29 7:31 AM CDT Notes: The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth. This quarterly series is aggregated from the monthly version of the series (BBKMLEIX (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BBKMLEIX)), using the triangle average described in Brave, Butters, and Kelley (2019) (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1) to approximate quarterly annualized (log) percent changes from the monthly series. For more details, see also: Brave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/422), Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422 Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity (https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2019/1), Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1 DATE VALUE 1960-01-01 1.572423732260199700 1960-04-01 2.191794044025848500 1960-07-01 1.582766242927778000 1960-10-01 1.003835003122874400 1961-01-01 0.777780923796925300 1961-04-01 0.137503308846537080 1961-07-01 -0.328660865377203400 1961-10-01 0.311225764873094900 1962-01-01 0.779893574000875200 1962-04-01 1.053804218487894600 1962-07-01 0.840380060262161800 1962-10-01 0.512510530089236900 1963-01-01 0.257757524613308800 1963-04-01 0.498901370045859550 1963-07-01 0.867235969649859000 1963-10-01 0.951199732816475900 1964-01-01 1.107701836444031000 1964-04-01 1.084582738539873900 1964-07-01 0.756739759602652700 1964-10-01 0.434166014934546500 1965-01-01 0.976719481479952800 1965-04-01 1.677193154730707300 1965-07-01 2.277311913629253200 1965-10-01 2.191755142127866500 1966-01-01 1.076087543474332700 1966-04-01 0.681601610856780300 1966-07-01 1.017170380235883000 1966-10-01 1.843264295559271500 1967-01-01 2.457650578824373400 1967-04-01 1.959933751855504400 1967-07-01 1.241111559625729000 1967-10-01 0.879852066295078400 1968-01-01 1.523725039355188000 1968-04-01 1.704236525968219000 1968-07-01 1.077006487037662000 1968-10-01 0.483946025336885500 1969-01-01 0.568234633290393100 1969-04-01 0.241944567270519770 1969-07-01 -0.034363049946381896 1969-10-01 -0.010814556378350968 1970-01-01 0.381038127242084400 1970-04-01 0.774289692316385200 1970-07-01 0.975650494636748200 1970-10-01 0.657113957670244000 1971-01-01 0.749484761660340500 1971-04-01 0.375920941381916900 1971-07-01 -0.185381940593687800 1971-10-01 -0.312616722188757130 1972-01-01 0.459257402491882600 1972-04-01 0.532471515955105800 1972-07-01 0.043699534782349040 1972-10-01 -0.278482395269354500 1973-01-01 -0.457246676029971500 1973-04-01 -0.993231008262693700 1973-07-01 -1.792953895878457000 1973-10-01 -2.404306952578231500 1974-01-01 -2.181116174960524600 1974-04-01 -1.064747212813256500 1974-07-01 -0.098917175196726050 1974-10-01 1.211219973479987800 1975-01-01 1.977604084981046600 1975-04-01 1.250830166451535000 1975-07-01 0.047467238533503850 1975-10-01 -0.287438441357858400 1976-01-01 -0.182585959534302980 1976-04-01 -0.289878357470837230 1976-07-01 -0.342986921541703240 1976-10-01 -0.350515455206262650 1977-01-01 -0.519551318690054400 1977-04-01 0.084148721014516080 1977-07-01 0.387260305372796600 1977-10-01 0.111970587928569090 1978-01-01 0.483834618864846700 1978-04-01 1.175406061548055500 1978-07-01 0.389433920042006600 1978-10-01 -0.402613916702622600 1979-01-01 -1.202634734685242400 1979-04-01 -1.541170082746112100 1979-07-01 -1.079714202054959700 1979-10-01 -1.177348131919043500 1980-01-01 -1.283371560960275400 1980-04-01 -0.913427749284312500 1980-07-01 -0.436501597161709400 1980-10-01 -0.611859068350607800 1981-01-01 -0.272744976369288240 1981-04-01 -0.258959511935103900 1981-07-01 -0.068153012920023210 1981-10-01 0.096665653221494690 1982-01-01 -0.012331040026744318 1982-04-01 -0.118266547106192360 1982-07-01 0.239146295469545880 1982-10-01 0.572487402519488700 1983-01-01 0.160146307822374570 1983-04-01 -0.119054395524547150 1983-07-01 -0.106178927265317680 1983-10-01 0.125007362888775120 1984-01-01 0.711634096797447900 1984-04-01 1.322542257591992300 1984-07-01 1.232484085555579600 1984-10-01 1.052425471065580000 1985-01-01 0.941248444879383700 1985-04-01 0.956254487746995500 1985-07-01 1.050481576208657000 1985-10-01 0.586118160718579000 1986-01-01 0.374413337604489800 1986-04-01 0.009268427419767659 1986-07-01 -0.597428109484037800 1986-10-01 -0.861782933393677800 1987-01-01 -1.136901377652492000 1987-04-01 -0.988807649838945300 1987-07-01 -0.776482900510237200 1987-10-01 -0.505083827007412000 1988-01-01 -0.327609481174201130 1988-04-01 -0.273075572584524500 1988-07-01 -0.180152966806814220 1988-10-01 0.043304352535668190 1989-01-01 0.211581734651750480 1989-04-01 0.348682873495410440 1989-07-01 0.545252291181439500 1989-10-01 -0.043909555389578540 1990-01-01 -0.675963253509013800 1990-04-01 -1.151136281811521400 1990-07-01 -1.675030664402966900 1990-10-01 -1.615974787183832400 1991-01-01 -0.843884214284289000 1991-04-01 -0.853169596653808400 1991-07-01 -1.343518302294499400 1991-10-01 -1.048111315496794500 1992-01-01 -0.531494598258276800 1992-04-01 -0.629235296870319900 1992-07-01 -0.730845995089144400 1992-10-01 -0.820540394570611100 1993-01-01 -1.229085337139291400 1993-04-01 -0.982405925466714800 1993-07-01 -0.507095104189242400 1993-10-01 -0.360263380548429300 1994-01-01 -0.750083483844360200 1994-04-01 -1.219188847880642500 1994-07-01 -1.482165367830939900 1994-10-01 -1.387356655641680500 1995-01-01 -1.160702270635262800 1995-04-01 -0.524391980162469800 1995-07-01 -0.050806799182310690 1995-10-01 -0.035041442087291370 1996-01-01 0.073586661397440630 1996-04-01 0.077984759728365630 1996-07-01 -0.201455322956974580 1996-10-01 -0.402815616604661750 1997-01-01 -0.211628674254863620 1997-04-01 0.381347784247768600 1997-07-01 0.666096237116300000 1997-10-01 0.704684464124668000 1998-01-01 1.077120883573434000 1998-04-01 1.405479291771738700 1998-07-01 1.364655662321960600 1998-10-01 1.119018269525825500 1999-01-01 0.577410940669835600 1999-04-01 0.242145178816312030 1999-07-01 0.240518795419704100 1999-10-01 0.219051436047239980 2000-01-01 0.209820031005259260 2000-04-01 0.297806666494675960 2000-07-01 0.449614296831549850 2000-10-01 0.632203853258385600 2001-01-01 0.807235830007531100 2001-04-01 1.245619262392788400 2001-07-01 1.109148053181681300 2001-10-01 1.086909066102572700 2002-01-01 0.887634023023123400 2002-04-01 -0.080888108772229810 2002-07-01 -0.207815262831938320 2002-10-01 0.065209647063461380 2003-01-01 0.190253013295679800 2003-04-01 0.640646226634091900 2003-07-01 0.546844524225982400 2003-10-01 -0.191027585992763150 2004-01-01 -1.039573696084967700 2004-04-01 -1.269222091376270200 2004-07-01 -1.098160793446201200 2004-10-01 -1.009054582477943000 2005-01-01 -1.024990875473215800 2005-04-01 -0.942638388446152800 2005-07-01 -1.032048686426248800 2005-10-01 -1.003461847363925200 2006-01-01 -0.541700627996523300 2006-04-01 -0.897182743997513600 2006-07-01 -0.835105933206544900 2006-10-01 -0.113573673304016440 2007-01-01 -0.466624251306500040 2007-04-01 -0.878238897129724400 2007-07-01 -0.861548489134593400 2007-10-01 -0.701169663911180000 2008-01-01 -0.062976294167187420 2008-04-01 0.568257180689980000 2008-07-01 1.109092955655215400 2008-10-01 2.153417416869096300 2009-01-01 2.005012308864038000 2009-04-01 0.924969054202333000 2009-07-01 -0.439019875729179000 2009-10-01 -1.216821460379292800 2010-01-01 -1.369940304555638600 2010-04-01 -1.200498971127141900 2010-07-01 -1.315966843005264000 2010-10-01 -1.702995050539304100 2011-01-01 -2.295868831728933000 2011-04-01 -1.918493922832171000 2011-07-01 -1.371807378435499600 2011-10-01 -0.676872167733877300 2012-01-01 -0.236823428678765320 2012-04-01 -0.290090915299874400 2012-07-01 -0.366638523443986840 2012-10-01 -0.462726636341072860 2013-01-01 -0.429787709328579900 2013-04-01 -0.146573185064253180 2013-07-01 -0.165471739227462360 2013-10-01 -0.494262893111986700 2014-01-01 -0.705780412174330300 2014-04-01 -0.163385474024425940 2014-07-01 0.433283763825671740 2014-10-01 0.714355262199961800 2015-01-01 0.722291912364758300 2015-04-01 0.591591719643638300 2015-07-01 0.595569518939717400 2015-10-01 0.630318914244451400 2016-01-01 0.626792594805183500 2016-04-01 0.455310695660709900 2016-07-01 0.299924053752472500 2016-10-01 -0.121919171657190430 2017-01-01 -0.447587935119985850 2017-04-01 -0.541538599148653800 2017-07-01 -0.902944566021800700 2017-10-01 -1.176694238245125500 2018-01-01 -1.415086825026342000 2018-04-01 -1.386711966384295500 2018-07-01 -1.125704858246647800 2018-10-01 -0.507549699245318700 2019-01-01 0.492024536351070740 2019-04-01 1.301142923549424700 2019-07-01 1.268132608188559300 2019-10-01 0.098390064400165720 2020-01-01 -2.517431790238734000 2020-04-01 -4.100748476980208500 2020-07-01 0.708648176270938800 2020-10-01 0.856488118468027300 2021-01-01 -0.468674185791778100 2021-04-01 -0.746235595696800600 2021-07-01 -0.987956694506393300 2021-10-01 -1.356516361663293100 2022-01-01 -1.989480587296097200 2022-04-01 -1.734083969578282800 2022-07-01 -0.624569254237991300 2022-10-01 0.439908454710737800 2023-01-01 1.257684681449784600 2023-04-01 1.707625522438435400 2023-07-01 1.446594182884234400 2023-10-01 1.141038771245167300 2024-01-01 1.098908725697338700