Federal Reserve Economic Data

Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2024-11-01
Last Updated 2024-12-23 7:36 AM CST
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 4.70041707117649800000
1960-02-01 -2.05803440306371230000
1960-03-01 -6.07232351239006800000
1960-04-01 -1.85665147970483600000
1960-05-01 -4.13861443702134600000
1960-06-01 -4.76591290200714000000
1960-07-01 -3.45385661772013150000
1960-08-01 -3.26580506974198100000
1960-09-01 -3.83243398427296500000
1960-10-01 -4.02708358691104100000
1960-11-01 -7.28676535375839700000
1960-12-01 -7.84568480158165400000
1961-01-01 -2.37360963674805800000
1961-02-01 -1.48646709589803950000
1961-03-01 2.36418885278427000000
1961-04-01 3.91341292700237600000
1961-05-01 4.48652850375258800000
1961-06-01 4.79412550544558700000
1961-07-01 3.46816270483947740000
1961-08-01 4.70893013760605950000
1961-09-01 1.45574882113973270000
1961-10-01 5.52184193210352300000
1961-11-01 5.25950682243560400000
1961-12-01 2.87981380843928440000
1962-01-01 -0.93227437574662250000
1962-02-01 4.54483700942941600000
1962-03-01 1.92351674518896830000
1962-04-01 0.68801235365781690000
1962-05-01 -0.48158485122310990000
1962-06-01 -1.78498016808096830000
1962-07-01 0.92692444196847590000
1962-08-01 0.02108626536026456000
1962-09-01 1.43607192470052700000
1962-10-01 -1.08766590147038530000
1962-11-01 0.59978543272461620000
1962-12-01 -1.01733484698432970000
1963-01-01 0.23818044137753733000
1963-02-01 3.57546720838257230000
1963-03-01 2.10255600317007100000
1963-04-01 3.45936712389723800000
1963-05-01 2.43723666635613020000
1963-06-01 1.31348878776282030000
1963-07-01 0.69049149741739490000
1963-08-01 0.42678714263675680000
1963-09-01 1.81503470356628260000
1963-10-01 2.41531258135087500000
1963-11-01 0.19911705790400450000
1963-12-01 1.08876036556371880000
1964-01-01 2.19410195499081900000
1964-02-01 3.01283593535887340000
1964-03-01 1.27059580333783080000
1964-04-01 3.12590990544315430000
1964-05-01 2.01698674492652300000
1964-06-01 0.48135473339147600000
1964-07-01 2.95693132851648730000
1964-08-01 0.64439245042921260000
1964-09-01 0.96872474879792250000
1964-10-01 -2.19754561246922300000
1964-11-01 5.85553735641670950000
1964-12-01 4.84857054641791700000
1965-01-01 2.36291955387683530000
1965-02-01 2.78298214914511600000
1965-03-01 4.83797412458299600000
1965-04-01 1.61525278353244700000
1965-05-01 1.89840268855601900000
1965-06-01 1.50833453442375090000
1965-07-01 3.52890643174416940000
1965-08-01 1.26879040434285000000
1965-09-01 1.45079958027229280000
1965-10-01 4.07493762682168200000
1965-11-01 3.72330574034340100000
1965-12-01 4.44856333947219100000
1966-01-01 3.44927465623450140000
1966-02-01 3.81391811288330770000
1966-03-01 4.45597235956714850000
1966-04-01 -0.38496596512873610000
1966-05-01 -1.27516345637598620000
1966-06-01 0.43918452011610337000
1966-07-01 0.26513413479069290000
1966-08-01 0.40417082726137890000
1966-09-01 1.00424263996411820000
1966-10-01 -0.47711811504018115000
1966-11-01 -2.97076510677430500000
1966-12-01 -2.17346321049550360000
1967-01-01 -0.85140721909295060000
1967-02-01 -4.04478009131080450000
1967-03-01 -1.76106142147139890000
1967-04-01 -0.89676388849470370000
1967-05-01 -1.83882303071023530000
1967-06-01 0.00333639382364739160
1967-07-01 -1.20023108017204570000
1967-08-01 3.06271437968727400000
1967-09-01 0.52745175802767710000
1967-10-01 0.09409317725318990000
1967-11-01 5.36692890563718900000
1967-12-01 3.99301307415241570000
1968-01-01 -0.95801912682265170000
1968-02-01 1.08807564933315560000
1968-03-01 1.85973697325225880000
1968-04-01 0.05851339586978302000
1968-05-01 2.34891373343476140000
1968-06-01 0.84407081226272610000
1968-07-01 0.49399910349053570000
1968-08-01 -1.36300876588325200000
1968-09-01 1.62921450971697320000
1968-10-01 1.79156702477807950000
1968-11-01 2.28173842239344940000
1968-12-01 -0.58261115407030020000
1969-01-01 0.99090225993021110000
1969-02-01 1.18294507050277970000
1969-03-01 1.65337665688227650000
1969-04-01 0.13843507138762540000
1969-05-01 -1.09088949944640310000
1969-06-01 -0.21301932195405524000
1969-07-01 -0.27064345290021885000
1969-08-01 0.47073984262137086000
1969-09-01 -0.33826041629003460000
1969-10-01 -1.05437415812923200000
1969-11-01 -4.57360373586612500000
1969-12-01 -2.99076877067952500000
1970-01-01 -5.95824686108395200000
1970-02-01 -2.60208233524794740000
1970-03-01 -3.74133943284906900000
1970-04-01 -3.32344969903201100000
1970-05-01 -1.34667585237015430000
1970-06-01 -1.32957514946557630000
1970-07-01 -0.51908694021407250000
1970-08-01 -2.75342591133097400000
1970-09-01 -3.75244972684528800000
1970-10-01 -6.79625226458128200000
1970-11-01 -4.35973235581042600000
1970-12-01 6.09665737202484800000
1971-01-01 2.76308958033754240000
1971-02-01 0.64096584844680330000
1971-03-01 0.40653791660651030000
1971-04-01 1.40553276409873600000
1971-05-01 1.39427813397037560000
1971-06-01 1.61403938071273250000
1971-07-01 -1.81590391970912800000
1971-08-01 -0.29517098061646780000
1971-09-01 2.95794148861937560000
1971-10-01 0.99514805658308900000
1971-11-01 2.75984267348968840000
1971-12-01 4.19404646573824400000
1972-01-01 5.20221539390816000000
1972-02-01 2.50197899064881920000
1972-03-01 3.80853180503523570000
1972-04-01 2.64025067615134020000
1972-05-01 1.28024008630899470000
1972-06-01 1.40491293142541380000
1972-07-01 -0.06335390972562062000
1972-08-01 4.77897393980966450000
1972-09-01 4.27385412183163700000
1972-10-01 5.18428379751523050000
1972-11-01 5.33024460337060900000
1972-12-01 5.04095823180480400000
1973-01-01 4.67006673772107300000
1973-02-01 4.48511487255907200000
1973-03-01 1.28000657855972370000
1973-04-01 -0.86236922625375740000
1973-05-01 0.68284210296959290000
1973-06-01 0.21318373734981050000
1973-07-01 0.25466635535631604000
1973-08-01 -1.92079492705427000000
1973-09-01 0.54051702144674100000
1973-10-01 3.03439029352738030000
1973-11-01 2.03905819788257950000
1973-12-01 -2.86868305430582400000
1974-01-01 -2.22564243921226300000
1974-02-01 -1.93096389628947220000
1974-03-01 -1.26090237122893780000
1974-04-01 -2.40310766324346900000
1974-05-01 0.14433640777974935000
1974-06-01 -2.40645231959332200000
1974-07-01 -2.38834286065739130000
1974-08-01 -4.15221931216819100000
1974-09-01 -4.70265926265399200000
1974-10-01 -6.26401970679606900000
1974-11-01 -11.94276142464121200000
1974-12-01 -14.92513220067583000000
1975-01-01 -8.56049661018813300000
1975-02-01 -9.37025539220964500000
1975-03-01 -8.40181136633498200000
1975-04-01 -0.70569446122815980000
1975-05-01 -0.15220637364688305000
1975-06-01 1.50908051626020550000
1975-07-01 4.05616297700017700000
1975-08-01 3.65325535402873360000
1975-09-01 3.40061976233445670000
1975-10-01 1.53631324922130990000
1975-11-01 0.81987928693248660000
1975-12-01 4.06438738039574700000
1976-01-01 5.85358797365124200000
1976-02-01 3.61550326130752750000
1976-03-01 1.57258380420784220000
1976-04-01 1.30976454939400130000
1976-05-01 1.09305272939234550000
1976-06-01 1.19947167786774410000
1976-07-01 1.16087770903910850000
1976-08-01 0.57038646587427040000
1976-09-01 0.71645539635755000000
1976-10-01 -0.48527888593556760000
1976-11-01 3.77521158723703400000
1976-12-01 4.62163486297471900000
1977-01-01 -0.92873566199275340000
1977-02-01 5.60908814923326500000
1977-03-01 5.09418668992580600000
1977-04-01 3.17159184578562850000
1977-05-01 2.52346828521456250000
1977-06-01 2.61693110200839000000
1977-07-01 1.06229358100664740000
1977-08-01 1.00950635043504120000
1977-09-01 0.63198266648548780000
1977-10-01 0.84320271172586920000
1977-11-01 1.02411210589776200000
1977-12-01 0.81388421356361520000
1978-01-01 -5.78123127668473700000
1978-02-01 3.89437652127810140000
1978-03-01 6.81011035134847000000
1978-04-01 7.72276986047979400000
1978-05-01 2.37044132847085680000
1978-06-01 2.77931206211977800000
1978-07-01 -0.48157428739761160000
1978-08-01 1.96305347071464960000
1978-09-01 1.10463533371866120000
1978-10-01 2.54228610886972300000
1978-11-01 2.28806513756332800000
1978-12-01 0.91931998597506950000
1979-01-01 -3.14228469612443100000
1979-02-01 -0.21089965278774130000
1979-03-01 3.05626574983685370000
1979-04-01 -5.24570334564018300000
1979-05-01 3.47064227518157240000
1979-06-01 -0.67279884710225950000
1979-07-01 -1.36706777737918970000
1979-08-01 -1.94956022872002300000
1979-09-01 -1.42714748194447100000
1979-10-01 -0.55598195663627170000
1979-11-01 -1.99709685719780600000
1979-12-01 -1.40485213706604160000
1980-01-01 -0.26440091682994044000
1980-02-01 -3.51121857716721500000
1980-03-01 -8.60635683416224900000
1980-04-01 -12.05213669233992300000
1980-05-01 -11.47187641313247400000
1980-06-01 -5.95343573747449500000
1980-07-01 -1.93560018094615140000
1980-08-01 1.46491177025089310000
1980-09-01 5.87326299076150500000
1980-10-01 5.45327626903717000000
1980-11-01 3.26015586346806470000
1980-12-01 1.38797653269903740000
1981-01-01 -0.40929805737911473000
1981-02-01 -2.10732792923116800000
1981-03-01 -1.18627296922821770000
1981-04-01 -0.67327030612756430000
1981-05-01 -1.55459970613626490000
1981-06-01 -1.44573481354874310000
1981-07-01 -0.46719870034926070000
1981-08-01 -2.45529131937074400000
1981-09-01 -5.11538591197097150000
1981-10-01 -6.77374864471161100000
1981-11-01 -6.99627187121532400000
1981-12-01 -7.83085673956851800000
1982-01-01 -8.03135645278734200000
1982-02-01 3.17663521116965700000
1982-03-01 -3.39134918909900170000
1982-04-01 -4.54917479274666300000
1982-05-01 -2.59866024275096800000
1982-06-01 -3.94655023314151000000
1982-07-01 -2.89525170487160160000
1982-08-01 -4.87786716588487200000
1982-09-01 -2.68715756576511120000
1982-10-01 -4.39817174868992500000
1982-11-01 -1.71802626980400920000
1982-12-01 -0.71975095358962070000
1983-01-01 5.18840226999456000000
1983-02-01 -0.28476801397174606000
1983-03-01 4.33962773786583100000
1983-04-01 4.45569570679422200000
1983-05-01 5.17986883959013960000
1983-06-01 6.28827886150282700000
1983-07-01 4.72686216821691800000
1983-08-01 3.41307792167941000000
1983-09-01 5.98909733329257500000
1983-10-01 4.50576352406688800000
1983-11-01 3.73893848634636900000
1983-12-01 4.15701323112838500000
1984-01-01 5.41200935109302100000
1984-02-01 3.39498648129251500000
1984-03-01 1.19580412283041610000
1984-04-01 2.21950855623682660000
1984-05-01 2.38313835549545300000
1984-06-01 1.54639780482417300000
1984-07-01 -0.51615453673902120000
1984-08-01 -0.71427075966913230000
1984-09-01 -1.38590555085982100000
1984-10-01 0.27981038676678810000
1984-11-01 1.56236434191828130000
1984-12-01 -0.21934141198796916000
1985-01-01 -0.84459080681140200000
1985-02-01 -0.10988897633715282000
1985-03-01 1.14241571311531540000
1985-04-01 -0.85829358102695390000
1985-05-01 0.52913100322083800000
1985-06-01 -2.10435086682190000000
1985-07-01 -0.81318639420378980000
1985-08-01 1.84523943527839700000
1985-09-01 0.52028804813431880000
1985-10-01 -1.30055789684753980000
1985-11-01 0.82243272147741220000
1985-12-01 0.95327894998544340000
1986-01-01 2.17234288336184600000
1986-02-01 -2.90122983486890900000
1986-03-01 -2.45962213758570460000
1986-04-01 0.95671162899836350000
1986-05-01 -0.86764186621445140000
1986-06-01 -0.72472909506439190000
1986-07-01 0.68589761839860260000
1986-08-01 0.23624427972523860000
1986-09-01 2.06415770061045000000
1986-10-01 -1.23021692620433830000
1986-11-01 -0.03210814799557387000
1986-12-01 2.95629155526180030000
1987-01-01 -3.00111430897228540000
1987-02-01 5.10417530146067800000
1987-03-01 0.55873198843307400000
1987-04-01 0.79216908389975700000
1987-05-01 1.34929218296140750000
1987-06-01 1.82685169769161100000
1987-07-01 2.81826218550786000000
1987-08-01 1.27599291549812890000
1987-09-01 2.32556870661720750000
1987-10-01 2.51314587316706060000
1987-11-01 0.89441909902244590000
1987-12-01 1.29925294909373810000
1988-01-01 -0.71527570022543750000
1988-02-01 2.13024252161522250000
1988-03-01 2.10669926005603300000
1988-04-01 1.09677507941417930000
1988-05-01 0.37955524424297510000
1988-06-01 1.40018150506713800000
1988-07-01 -0.36988249080187500000
1988-08-01 0.26312642571402600000
1988-09-01 0.43542254981250744000
1988-10-01 1.68852707235698190000
1988-11-01 1.32022332000244850000
1988-12-01 2.60241850826141930000
1989-01-01 0.68963519033472820000
1989-02-01 -2.63920516929487770000
1989-03-01 -0.91599435474395790000
1989-04-01 0.32671102629194276000
1989-05-01 -2.15396139073521550000
1989-06-01 -1.82407015628592800000
1989-07-01 -3.24825073932306950000
1989-08-01 1.89168604970565780000
1989-09-01 -1.74770183359514260000
1989-10-01 -2.09557446696225250000
1989-11-01 0.09005644927374262000
1989-12-01 0.04431768223862310500
1990-01-01 0.46241322302735700000
1990-02-01 1.49639303352905200000
1990-03-01 0.42917838492871896000
1990-04-01 -3.25311025450893250000
1990-05-01 -0.82762977895676200000
1990-06-01 -0.53203551728637820000
1990-07-01 -2.36276107632093200000
1990-08-01 -1.26081658068334700000
1990-09-01 -3.67160460890312250000
1990-10-01 -4.29021233783507700000
1990-11-01 -6.50341629032341900000
1990-12-01 -5.10824447276330400000
1991-01-01 -5.48892986594571000000
1991-02-01 -3.71463016357143030000
1991-03-01 -3.32793420171374740000
1991-04-01 0.88409364146718530000
1991-05-01 1.09694678911727100000
1991-06-01 0.58314533226637140000
1991-07-01 1.22292357290873090000
1991-08-01 -0.32873965673356940000
1991-09-01 0.79465171519295560000
1991-10-01 -1.20798349299796960000
1991-11-01 -1.65725631115917920000
1991-12-01 -3.06359216696141000000
1992-01-01 0.22202197430025472000
1992-02-01 1.19923125886966250000
1992-03-01 2.46050564266184860000
1992-04-01 2.11448271067095500000
1992-05-01 0.67627823018043440000
1992-06-01 0.80785451596796500000
1992-07-01 1.34043661655362830000
1992-08-01 -1.84003711138712860000
1992-09-01 0.88843674439789280000
1992-10-01 1.19166219140321400000
1992-11-01 0.74496957795457600000
1992-12-01 1.82417789282136520000
1993-01-01 0.68896448753041610000
1993-02-01 -0.07947171460027477000
1993-03-01 -1.28411167630081910000
1993-04-01 0.96318984607603740000
1993-05-01 0.04477539505708463000
1993-06-01 -0.04657497969250204400
1993-07-01 -0.12289031937391161000
1993-08-01 -0.14568965911727122000
1993-09-01 1.84297135552553230000
1993-10-01 2.37995194432409400000
1993-11-01 1.73994946279302320000
1993-12-01 2.31555118525881700000
1994-01-01 0.38052689613477690000
1994-02-01 0.98293742332497170000
1994-03-01 4.53582764722443400000
1994-04-01 1.78550521263122390000
1994-05-01 1.89773995448432520000
1994-06-01 2.18967346869558000000
1994-07-01 0.64382039605469820000
1994-08-01 2.75681083550313930000
1994-09-01 1.33831686451012270000
1994-10-01 2.42266275283792400000
1994-11-01 2.65218712810917760000
1994-12-01 2.87333159119357840000
1995-01-01 0.00009508168542704988
1995-02-01 -1.23342217719689050000
1995-03-01 -0.92795902514131250000
1995-04-01 -1.82748565076690680000
1995-05-01 -0.08381446104753800000
1995-06-01 0.55210567186321480000
1995-07-01 -1.31689713996683340000
1995-08-01 2.55921595107863760000
1995-09-01 1.32552877320048770000
1995-10-01 -0.98272104868428600000
1995-11-01 0.42499910036563330000
1995-12-01 0.62309013496516850000
1996-01-01 -3.22609690927502900000
1996-02-01 2.31837573087405160000
1996-03-01 1.36697137079449300000
1996-04-01 1.87803597027378990000
1996-05-01 2.40003039593190960000
1996-06-01 1.49392867035828600000
1996-07-01 0.19956832450161419000
1996-08-01 1.19853237248521570000
1996-09-01 1.14239263048147330000
1996-10-01 0.55558342434101460000
1996-11-01 1.82005148307400580000
1996-12-01 0.17319610373606714000
1997-01-01 0.69617212991528110000
1997-02-01 3.69448292327185970000
1997-03-01 1.81373623463058100000
1997-04-01 1.26719686634904200000
1997-05-01 0.78300571251296140000
1997-06-01 1.69596833799335500000
1997-07-01 2.98320638757660900000
1997-08-01 1.95749713483098530000
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