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Table Data - Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP

NOTE: To improve accessibility of data for all users, this file was converted from a text format to an html table.

Title Brave-Butters-Kelley Cycle: Lagging Subcomponent of GDP
Series ID BBKMCLA
Source Indiana University: Indiana Business Research Center
Release Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes
Seasonal Adjustment Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency Monthly
Units Annualized Percent Change from Preceding Period
Date Range 1960-01-01 to 2024-05-01
Last Updated 2024-07-01 7:31 AM CDT
Notes The Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) are the byproduct of research originally conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Currently, the BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth.

The lagging subcomponent of the cycle expressed in annualized real GDP growth equivalent units. The cycle component is the sum of the leading and lagging subcomponents.

For more details, see also:
ave, Scott A., Ross Cole, and David Kelley, 2019, A 'big data' view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, No. 422. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2019-422
Brave, Scott A., R. Andrew Butters, and David Kelley, 2019, A new 'big data' index of U.S. economic activity, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Vol. 43, No. 1. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.21033/ep-2019-1
DATE VALUE
1960-01-01 4.1409176455642030000
1960-02-01 -1.9567760950954236000
1960-03-01 -5.6776950916815565000
1960-04-01 -2.3152637582742055000
1960-05-01 -4.1787948816474020000
1960-06-01 -4.7416776609183620000
1960-07-01 -3.6076713521130084000
1960-08-01 -3.4165168748943286000
1960-09-01 -3.9258778716787860000
1960-10-01 -4.2547830173308830000
1960-11-01 -7.0845472784810510000
1960-12-01 -7.4605030129182980000
1961-01-01 -2.5750419831887754000
1961-02-01 -1.3831353171208807000
1961-03-01 2.1982630511465670000
1961-04-01 3.8259621707070637000
1961-05-01 4.4311762237661650000
1961-06-01 4.6930701145793146000
1961-07-01 3.6086174584527280000
1961-08-01 4.5522354552326725000
1961-09-01 1.8525500453534580000
1961-10-01 5.2612487792527150000
1961-11-01 5.0441255056325645000
1961-12-01 2.8454034196081173000
1962-01-01 -0.4377781766752828500
1962-02-01 4.1033133145291500000
1962-03-01 1.8735386017005247000
1962-04-01 0.6505560481434913000
1962-05-01 -0.5071866516953466000
1962-06-01 -1.5950056888437605000
1962-07-01 0.7120601402220587000
1962-08-01 0.0296248585113123850
1962-09-01 1.1908974268213832000
1962-10-01 -0.9406780911320569000
1962-11-01 0.4048537341743446000
1962-12-01 -0.8608458707922859000
1963-01-01 0.3323059275836184000
1963-02-01 3.2560557803515238000
1963-03-01 2.1456787044868415000
1963-04-01 3.2763484044793856000
1963-05-01 2.3646516658490246000
1963-06-01 1.3410446138169690000
1963-07-01 0.7350597231677314000
1963-08-01 0.5149552370322671000
1963-09-01 1.6903211881971967000
1963-10-01 2.1923054369975550000
1963-11-01 0.3127296388749168000
1963-12-01 1.0840136551938484000
1964-01-01 2.1098893015875624000
1964-02-01 2.7788013017269580000
1964-03-01 1.3765651542607100000
1964-04-01 2.9061946818406423000
1964-05-01 1.9400367808690007000
1964-06-01 0.6243036976639477000
1964-07-01 2.6623491345338780000
1964-08-01 0.6832636071418792000
1964-09-01 0.8444660954555488000
1964-10-01 -1.6796264498931690000
1964-11-01 5.3164042520501065000
1964-12-01 4.6025062558958310000
1965-01-01 2.4691713574220180000
1965-02-01 2.7727778285879700000
1965-03-01 4.4587325426556940000
1965-04-01 1.6563245246764753000
1965-05-01 1.7929128076175471000
1965-06-01 1.5011696588977546000
1965-07-01 3.1793412670463543000
1965-08-01 1.2870457507263044000
1965-09-01 1.5115800867591265000
1965-10-01 3.8026223284753050000
1965-11-01 3.6523839182885770000
1965-12-01 4.2804008942197750000
1966-01-01 3.4839403923526180000
1966-02-01 3.7102239364416710000
1966-03-01 4.0599408354754200000
1966-04-01 -0.2326478656781943000
1966-05-01 -1.1334215059899784000
1966-06-01 0.2799937632825455000
1966-07-01 0.1856211700247345500
1966-08-01 0.3385990144227707000
1966-09-01 0.7750373936294941000
1966-10-01 -0.6055120507483860000
1966-11-01 -2.8827420808623274000
1966-12-01 -2.2702686469496647000
1967-01-01 -1.2359074086758330000
1967-02-01 -3.8912315827084405000
1967-03-01 -2.0066150109816730000
1967-04-01 -1.2717772029181904000
1967-05-01 -1.9441992022885580000
1967-06-01 -0.3166549204741402000
1967-07-01 -1.1348157888969448000
1967-08-01 2.4938831362433564000
1967-09-01 0.4426650020633654500
1967-10-01 0.2400809990393550000
1967-11-01 4.7935235027914070000
1967-12-01 3.6391136434590960000
1968-01-01 -0.6129372779214758000
1968-02-01 0.9410559421693859000
1968-03-01 1.6156108984183752000
1968-04-01 0.1779035107227697500
1968-05-01 2.0460246985702297000
1968-06-01 0.7479878100891787000
1968-07-01 0.3408923461266983300
1968-08-01 -1.1639872543402288000
1968-09-01 1.3745850280762344000
1968-10-01 1.6570212048879090000
1968-11-01 2.0501732731198827000
1968-12-01 -0.3300692724855130000
1969-01-01 0.9355601270482865000
1969-02-01 1.1685481865893907000
1969-03-01 1.5332243420279053000
1969-04-01 0.1906909109085864000
1969-05-01 -0.9575068874072211000
1969-06-01 -0.2322423286569791600
1969-07-01 -0.2489960203949381500
1969-08-01 0.3431550777099885000
1969-09-01 -0.4157156911467727600
1969-10-01 -1.1866699439176658000
1969-11-01 -4.2914126201772020000
1969-12-01 -3.1464062575435060000
1970-01-01 -5.6238502686128800000
1970-02-01 -2.8651030492511618000
1970-03-01 -3.7219944438949870000
1970-04-01 -3.2981674160353430000
1970-05-01 -1.5782499097112959000
1970-06-01 -1.4633433511427518000
1970-07-01 -0.8195720358676500000
1970-08-01 -2.8303081318992716000
1970-09-01 -3.9357232935301654000
1970-10-01 -6.5033166784303450000
1970-11-01 -4.0625420620757740000
1970-12-01 5.0730949956862510000
1971-01-01 2.5593686590206195000
1971-02-01 0.7001171656662615000
1971-03-01 0.4351665131682940000
1971-04-01 1.2277660242414610000
1971-05-01 1.2960816152396262000
1971-06-01 1.3354048487276837000
1971-07-01 -1.5805358179307140000
1971-08-01 -0.2844624467449684000
1971-09-01 2.5820910157909360000
1971-10-01 1.0839719394554523000
1971-11-01 2.6231763591533963000
1971-12-01 3.9940505891380940000
1972-01-01 4.8723089669773270000
1972-02-01 2.6327844677416907000
1972-03-01 3.6747864486236810000
1972-04-01 2.6552413522743845000
1972-05-01 1.4118774776275773000
1972-06-01 1.4129231865994596000
1972-07-01 0.2752147071986421600
1972-08-01 4.4935091619110485000
1972-09-01 4.2921998945678490000
1972-10-01 5.1506990779097240000
1972-11-01 5.3663295069299260000
1972-12-01 5.1368585637920110000
1973-01-01 4.8407071459501020000
1973-02-01 4.5217119524939005000
1973-03-01 1.5593259385369878000
1973-04-01 -0.3913879163238918000
1973-05-01 0.8035294469457626000
1973-06-01 0.3936462294551089600
1973-07-01 0.3615967692774421600
1973-08-01 -1.3788289449651507000
1973-09-01 0.7994492417875130000
1973-10-01 3.0168525400872084000
1973-11-01 2.0598265312546897000
1973-12-01 -2.2717896233440276000
1974-01-01 -1.9352054345620113000
1974-02-01 -1.6825565923058974000
1974-03-01 -1.2072199091367946000
1974-04-01 -2.1286002020059294000
1974-05-01 -0.0629827190225611400
1974-06-01 -2.2330776627928985000
1974-07-01 -2.4534061535461267000
1974-08-01 -4.0245692624724560000
1974-09-01 -4.7591224887906630000
1974-10-01 -6.4817477480959615000
1974-11-01 -11.6633072899872940000
1974-12-01 -14.3682035220327080000
1975-01-01 -8.9508207269201950000
1975-02-01 -9.3439109697577440000
1975-03-01 -8.1339586547162630000
1975-04-01 -1.2465304839388123000
1975-05-01 -0.3094245403389152500
1975-06-01 1.4144181379608975000
1975-07-01 3.7255521488478904000
1975-08-01 3.5028828988806350000
1975-09-01 3.2473070763085046000
1975-10-01 1.5673416991968558000
1975-11-01 1.0330766659592565000
1975-12-01 3.9100985074807760000
1976-01-01 5.5128251288676780000
1976-02-01 3.5543644087704280000
1976-03-01 1.6925732655781769000
1976-04-01 1.3164928062207300000
1976-05-01 1.1450395222542455000
1976-06-01 1.1623006774737200000
1976-07-01 1.0916998043249250000
1976-08-01 0.5884676594164429000
1976-09-01 0.6642974754840284000
1976-10-01 -0.2126002091338689800
1976-11-01 3.4757388490106695000
1976-12-01 4.2436398277501260000
1977-01-01 -0.2751140453755319000
1977-02-01 5.2022178609609800000
1977-03-01 4.9208884335546560000
1977-04-01 3.2301235220004663000
1977-05-01 2.5656857461206590000
1977-06-01 2.5670161750656650000
1977-07-01 1.1704965572933643000
1977-08-01 0.9897866745366785000
1977-09-01 0.6069345718451223000
1977-10-01 0.7432894489473177000
1977-11-01 0.8503771025947524000
1977-12-01 0.5719287846431128000
1978-01-01 -4.8101136941548255000
1978-02-01 3.5813645796662880000
1978-03-01 6.4509115952086930000
1978-04-01 7.2716470033533240000
1978-05-01 2.6707826483641766000
1978-06-01 2.7223750652688460000
1978-07-01 -0.0984243223440652800
1978-08-01 1.8943609275284550000
1978-09-01 1.2761794542074514000
1978-10-01 2.4997138949381417000
1978-11-01 2.2648397722404474000
1978-12-01 0.9182402907271486000
1979-01-01 -2.5461113814266110000
1979-02-01 -0.0512431461032640200
1979-03-01 2.6286522823200350000
1979-04-01 -4.2233869276303140000
1979-05-01 2.9867299818083826000
1979-06-01 -0.4186383373987196400
1979-07-01 -1.1750197919183838000
1979-08-01 -1.7351211703106013000
1979-09-01 -1.2725864034789856000
1979-10-01 -0.5282607266060155000
1979-11-01 -1.7212820272644358000
1979-12-01 -1.2750196121873180000
1980-01-01 -0.4396644071175304000
1980-02-01 -3.4966586191259657000
1980-03-01 -8.2772875667382490000
1980-04-01 -11.5427962377364160000
1980-05-01 -11.0778623993075020000
1980-06-01 -6.0925717267574360000
1980-07-01 -2.1391889174910300000
1980-08-01 1.3452388182099717000
1980-09-01 5.4478818423597800000
1980-10-01 5.2340573329640945000
1980-11-01 3.2741624118420040000
1980-12-01 1.4637593039627501000
1981-01-01 -0.2818287439471815500
1981-02-01 -1.8910247223939183000
1981-03-01 -1.2010723369864862000
1981-04-01 -0.7638876655095734000
1981-05-01 -1.4716246060119644000
1981-06-01 -1.3985094956814663000
1981-07-01 -0.6199998786338973000
1981-08-01 -2.4656602176738827000
1981-09-01 -5.0221842885795660000
1981-10-01 -6.6694214434992130000
1981-11-01 -7.0526061121644900000
1981-12-01 -7.7776556120705840000
1982-01-01 -7.5975308915402280000
1982-02-01 2.0060934896297870000
1982-03-01 -3.3370457112655860000
1982-04-01 -4.3903352840360830000
1982-05-01 -2.8230399224586575000
1982-06-01 -3.9076913971448346000
1982-07-01 -3.1331561608504472000
1982-08-01 -4.7659619748527330000
1982-09-01 -2.9644154047473740000
1982-10-01 -4.2978044343197040000
1982-11-01 -1.8800438975087845000
1982-12-01 -0.6483346186193422000
1983-01-01 4.5018467624644760000
1983-02-01 0.1772648373129755400
1983-03-01 4.0988148769464260000
1983-04-01 4.3969110246076570000
1983-05-01 5.1087977291399540000
1983-06-01 6.0493128975377470000
1983-07-01 4.7306912298825970000
1983-08-01 3.6273403769705657000
1983-09-01 5.7525115783222330000
1983-10-01 4.5253680749491280000
1983-11-01 3.8227778262013210000
1983-12-01 4.1914447432162310000
1984-01-01 5.1971177061098110000
1984-02-01 3.3779937279126657000
1984-03-01 1.3773378632274390000
1984-04-01 2.1292185178062626000
1984-05-01 2.2733707809608044000
1984-06-01 1.4223926867282757000
1984-07-01 -0.4482835043518807000
1984-08-01 -0.7477730840804430000
1984-09-01 -1.2955931151272010000
1984-10-01 0.1605549992487962000
1984-11-01 1.2676983552062784000
1984-12-01 -0.2778949300381453600
1985-01-01 -0.8378458769324334000
1985-02-01 -0.1548489745785468000
1985-03-01 0.8659585881904666000
1985-04-01 -0.7467927887853875000
1985-05-01 0.2353603258167685000
1985-06-01 -1.9561808630831459000
1985-07-01 -0.8212697125981746000
1985-08-01 1.5307606952417680000
1985-09-01 0.4094779107255495000
1985-10-01 -1.1228729291034260000
1985-11-01 0.6783956985535952000
1985-12-01 0.8509443577604594000
1986-01-01 1.7931983277778751000
1986-02-01 -2.5830897856923350000
1986-03-01 -2.2597980165489413000
1986-04-01 0.6758670168133243000
1986-05-01 -0.7464074241575692000
1986-06-01 -0.5947015991172611000
1986-07-01 0.6466400395051156000
1986-08-01 0.3553754149575447000
1986-09-01 1.8257993097536850000
1986-10-01 -0.9448453874720992000
1986-11-01 0.0939116929940504000
1986-12-01 2.5690965245574446000
1987-01-01 -2.2195328780979810000
1987-02-01 4.5079179708798070000
1987-03-01 0.8213215461389791000
1987-04-01 0.9429363297936445000
1987-05-01 1.4187309599512214000
1987-06-01 1.9020270410744597000
1987-07-01 2.7547626911961243000
1987-08-01 1.5061908322452462000
1987-09-01 2.3805532182080820000
1987-10-01 2.5190278703486952000
1987-11-01 1.0787220541554070000
1987-12-01 1.3341828103719500000
1988-01-01 -0.3685399961681095600
1988-02-01 2.0155672633764765000
1988-03-01 2.0620991306118057000
1988-04-01 1.1466380697303700000
1988-05-01 0.4979933577522010000
1988-06-01 1.3152356832442444000
1988-07-01 -0.1602394186181668000
1988-08-01 0.3464975601786885000
1988-09-01 0.5414647486372874000
1988-10-01 1.6318760618765250000
1988-11-01 1.3828505396362214000
1988-12-01 2.4100697916558120000
1989-01-01 0.6409372283679480000
1989-02-01 -2.2509002883335474000
1989-03-01 -0.8639135948879412000
1989-04-01 0.1478233752057214200
1989-05-01 -2.0180839535431500000
1989-06-01 -1.8519431945574172000
1989-07-01 -2.9600352122650433000
1989-08-01 1.3599405706041696000
1989-09-01 -1.6524749196551944000
1989-10-01 -1.9352696518038912000
1989-11-01 -0.0189080494216958000
1989-12-01 0.0627332446579590700
1990-01-01 0.5028207124819849000
1990-02-01 1.3932959193771886000
1990-03-01 0.3838218212312372600
1990-04-01 -2.7977664460788510000
1990-05-01 -0.8032559232077050000
1990-06-01 -0.5500533060027673000
1990-07-01 -2.1173458735092690000
1990-08-01 -1.3152832737975193000
1990-09-01 -3.4494697552606570000
1990-10-01 -4.2119867638680330000
1990-11-01 -6.1800635378199350000
1990-12-01 -5.0392938069254680000
1991-01-01 -5.2605014806870910000
1991-02-01 -3.6988175796653633000
1991-03-01 -3.1195495230854275000
1991-04-01 0.6675201837536054000
1991-05-01 1.0234397485039708000
1991-06-01 0.6437930383140067000
1991-07-01 1.1354112005912826000
1991-08-01 -0.1487048313010435300
1991-09-01 0.7059994642208018000
1991-10-01 -1.0611631614636716000
1991-11-01 -1.5598884855411432000
1991-12-01 -2.7266113680954422000
1992-01-01 0.1528025883628772700
1992-02-01 1.1833397676547084000
1992-03-01 2.3378344979744274000
1992-04-01 2.0239889692541517000
1992-05-01 0.7895638610420177000
1992-06-01 0.8795311335144046000
1992-07-01 1.2511394332187662000
1992-08-01 -1.4110721456842998000
1992-09-01 0.8306754009033366000
1992-10-01 1.1643047114419578000
1992-11-01 0.8138644572895624000
1992-12-01 1.6984056087063861000
1993-01-01 0.7640120312179008000
1993-02-01 -0.0406274287091371000
1993-03-01 -1.0590478066481030000
1993-04-01 0.8643209083248131000
1993-05-01 0.1372277827430402600
1993-06-01 -0.0140842340828918320
1993-07-01 -0.0827519713520279700
1993-08-01 -0.0159914836561746360
1993-09-01 1.7338204314203551000
1993-10-01 2.2788462080445920000
1993-11-01 1.8057475004200576000
1993-12-01 2.2258816818280290000
1994-01-01 0.5960873879000100000
1994-02-01 1.1952478413719185000
1994-03-01 4.3019117919602060000
1994-04-01 2.0337870455811426000
1994-05-01 2.0332084631049170000
1994-06-01 2.2134194247422325000
1994-07-01 0.9448000930707645000
1994-08-01 2.6797896769058580000
1994-09-01 1.5613986667843691000
1994-10-01 2.4806712061318200000
1994-11-01 2.6449259179926290000
1994-12-01 2.7911060597088917000
1995-01-01 0.1607118703433040300
1995-02-01 -1.0392829202496760000
1995-03-01 -0.9068243061412795000
1995-04-01 -1.6615604489147686000
1995-05-01 -0.1646970636120123300
1995-06-01 0.4309450133313089700
1995-07-01 -1.0452495032469047000
1995-08-01 2.2164763620165350000
1995-09-01 1.1872416363409526000
1995-10-01 -0.7909614658763111000
1995-11-01 0.3324604795942709000
1995-12-01 0.4826152487719025400
1996-01-01 -2.7527061397964290000
1996-02-01 1.9547667271979994000
1996-03-01 1.3421140616343308000
1996-04-01 1.8462467944445775000
1996-05-01 2.2546732511391320000
1996-06-01 1.5111113446914446000
1996-07-01 0.3074298415794504000
1996-08-01 1.1342606252215428000
1996-09-01 1.1067126081846423000
1996-10-01 0.6511410253806820000
1996-11-01 1.6692145994909720000
1996-12-01 0.2755896707972922400
1997-01-01 0.7786472931991959000
1997-02-01 3.3629841603752966000
1997-03-01 1.8132444653292100000
1997-04-01 1.2831265666382483000
1997-05-01 0.8505073606579557000
1997-06-01 1.6536036900393940000
1997-07-01 2.7715066235081363000
1997-08-01 1.8500093305524383000
1997-09-01 1.9976016673417718000
1997-10-01 1.2588230946215020000
1997-11-01 1.3827732291049368000
1997-12-01 0.5274368726590657000
1998-01-01 0.5831873336988445000
1998-02-01 0.8711583202039942000
1998-03-01 -0.0581784790326176600
1998-04-01 0.0671650056630934100
1998-05-01 0.4597612111250417000
1998-06-01 -1.3050783276406000000
1998-07-01 -0.9194110215281432000
1998-08-01 2.2615339500176440000
1998-09-01 0.7472298057802049000
1998-10-01 1.2438925162338375000
1998-11-01 0.0171162232559087450
1998-12-01 0.3725412726881790500
1999-01-01 0.2063313285500332000
1999-02-01 1.4477664299878608000
1999-03-01 0.0340013530919800950
1999-04-01 0.4272118995004449000
1999-05-01 1.5297556133001389000
1999-06-01 0.7238893638517463000
1999-07-01 1.3518570242678454000
1999-08-01 1.3221748513211040000
1999-09-01 0.6676539888706561000
1999-10-01 2.7569579271533295000
1999-11-01 1.8104262396120312000
1999-12-01 2.0201990257074190000
2000-01-01 0.8958513242070240000
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2000-03-01 2.1420647351687667000
2000-04-01 1.3928226944060205000
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2000-06-01 0.5290611185473708000
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2000-09-01 0.5075042446637058000
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2004-02-01 2.0845933549887947000
2004-03-01 3.0869096078995506000
2004-04-01 1.2344462873512105000
2004-05-01 2.0895371587921710000
2004-06-01 0.8739976593901645000
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2004-10-01 2.4792116608264280000
2004-11-01 1.8109785886946690000
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2005-01-01 1.9801493529461027000
2005-02-01 1.5602189115710603000
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2005-04-01 1.9632761309501798000
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2006-02-01 0.6952484480639372000
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2009-09-01 0.2170171205146921600
2009-10-01 0.0900767822124529000
2009-11-01 0.3280852441910768000
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2010-01-01 0.4343318320892338000
2010-02-01 0.2728231659931484000
2010-03-01 2.4202952788534840000
2010-04-01 2.2584184535725460000
2010-05-01 1.3468066028983100000
2010-06-01 0.4798826804883460400
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2010-09-01 -0.0411959080130323150
2010-10-01 0.2220873778943258700
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2010-12-01 1.4715495785682940000
2011-01-01 0.9546384146297844000
2011-02-01 0.3871454324017612500
2011-03-01 2.0800914354291510000
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2011-06-01 0.0781225787022260000
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2012-02-01 1.0724993434311683000
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2017-02-01 0.3929512545670084700
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2017-04-01 1.3334947679571325000
2017-05-01 0.5951791641439009000
2017-06-01 0.8771839301017690000
2017-07-01 0.0452806315258035900
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2017-09-01 1.8291236458013278000
2017-10-01 2.9762715548871570000
2017-11-01 2.5371806682367763000
2017-12-01 1.7380280006292470000
2018-01-01 0.7760285197387499000
2018-02-01 2.5444055446073600000
2018-03-01 1.4560964624295090000
2018-04-01 1.7812257078013020000
2018-05-01 1.2067540829957484000
2018-06-01 1.3098659971136086000
2018-07-01 0.8112421317139801000
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2020-06-01 14.3868343679645640000
2020-07-01 10.5603234445358220000
2020-08-01 5.8395302633736040000
2020-09-01 4.1409010528202320000
2020-10-01 4.0551681843712930000
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2021-01-01 2.9682343395389830000
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2021-03-01 7.1198192045185470000
2021-04-01 3.8385530927120994000
2021-05-01 2.9081889166001935000
2021-06-01 2.9077333879404890000
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2024-03-01 -1.9328794650503940000
2024-04-01 -1.9695001823397782000
2024-05-01 -0.9784333519373640000

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