Federal Reserve Economic Data: Your trusted data source since 1991

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth-quarter growth rates, hat is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. The PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures less food and energy (Core PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. Core PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures less food and energy. Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2024 to 2026 (Mar 20)

    Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Index, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1985 to Apr 2024 (2 days ago)

    The Equity Market Volatility tracker moves with the VIX and with the realized volatility of returns on the S&P 500. For more information, see Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2019), 'Policy News and Stack Market Volatility' (https://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/Policy%20News%20and%20Stock%20Market%20Volatility.pdf)

  • Percent Change at Annual Rate, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Q3 2011 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures uses a nowcasting model to synthesize the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called “nowcasts”) throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its “advance estimate” of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For futher information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Percent Change at Annual Rate, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Q2 2012 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods uses a nowcasting model to synthesize the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called “nowcasts”) throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its “advance estimate” of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For futher information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Percentage Points, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Q2 2014 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Goods provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Percent Change at Annual Rate, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Q2 2012 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Nowcast for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services uses a nowcasting model to synthesize the bridge equation approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with factor model and Bayesian vector autoregression approaches. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow release complements the quarterly GDP release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The Atlanta Fed recalculates and updates their GDPNow forecasts (called “nowcasts”) throughout the quarter as new data are released, up until the BEA releases its “advance estimate” of GDP for that quarter. The St. Louis Fed constructs a quarterly time series for this dataset, in which both historical and current observations values are combined. In general, the most-current observation is revised multiple times throughout the quarter. The final forecasted value (before the BEA’s release of the advance estimate of GDP) is the static, historical value for that quarter. For futher information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Percentage Points, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Q2 2014 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Percentage Points, Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Q2 2014 to Q2 2024 (1 day ago)

    The Contributions to percent change in GDPNow: Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services represents the contribution in percentage points that the nowcast for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services provides to real GDP growth. For further information visit the source at https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2015-06-17 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rate to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the median value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the two middle projections. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth-quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. The PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents low value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the midpoint of the central tendency forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the low value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the midpoint of the range forecast's high and low values established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth-quarter growth rates - that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. The PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three highest and three lowest projections for each year. This series represents the high value of the central tendency forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Fourth Quarter to Fourth Quarter Percent Change, Not Applicable, Not Seasonally Adjusted 2009-02-18 to 2024-03-20 (Mar 20)

    The longer-run projections are the rates of growth, inflation, and unemployment to which a policymaker expects the economy to converge over time in the absence of further shocks and under appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in the longer run, policymakers' longer-run projections for economic growth and unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy's longer-run potential growth rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment; similarly, the longer-run projection of inflation is the rate of inflation which the FOMC judges to be most consistent with its dual mandate in the longer-term. Projections of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate are fourth quarter growth rates, that is, percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation rate is the percentage rates of change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCEPI). Each participant's projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants' projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the year. This series represents the high value of the range forecast established by the Federal Open Market Committee. Digitized originals of this release can be found at https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publication/?pid=677.

  • Percent Change from Year Ago, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1978 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

  • Percent Change at Annual Rate, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Feb 1977 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

  • 6-Month Annualized Percent Change, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jul 1977 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The data series is calculated by the Dallas Fed, using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Calculating the trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for a given month involves looking at the price changes for each of the individual components of personal consumption expenditures. The individual price changes are sorted in ascending order from “fell the most” to “rose the most,” and a certain fraction of the most extreme observations at both ends of the spectrum are thrown out or trimmed. The inflation rate is then calculated as a weighted average of the remaining components. The trimmed mean inflation rate is a proxy for true core PCE inflation rate. The resulting inflation measure has been shown to outperform the more conventional “excluding food and energy” measure as a gauge of core inflation.

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    View data of PCE, an index that measures monthly changes in the price of consumer goods and services as a means of analyzing inflation.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCERG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if the price of beef rises, shoppers may buy less beef and more chicken. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index, as above. The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCCRG The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if car prices rise, car sales may decline while bicycle sales increase. The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index and excluding food and energy products, as above. The PCE price index less food excluding food and energy is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting future values of the PCE price index. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates. For more information on the PCE price index, see: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Prices & Inflation (https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-prices-inflation) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Differences between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/archive/differences-between-the-consumer-price-index-and-the-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index.pdf)

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCERX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf) (NIPA)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DDURRC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DSERRC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DGDSRX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DDURRX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DNDGRC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DSERRX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DFXARC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DGDSRC A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCCRC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DNDGRX A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DNRGRC For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Percent Change from Preceding Period, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Feb 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCCRAM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Billions of Chained 2017 Dollars, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Jan 2007 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DFXARX For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: IA001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DSERRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DDURRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Percent Change from Preceding Period, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Feb 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCERAM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DGDSRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCERA For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: IA001176 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

  • Percent Change from Preceding Period, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Feb 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: PQ001260 For more information about this series, please see please visit the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) (https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook).

  • Percent Change from Preceding Period, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Feb 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DPCCRGM A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DFXARG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DNRGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.

  • Index 2017=100, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Jan 1959 to Mar 2024 (Apr 26)

    BEA Account Code: DNDGRG For more information about this series, please see http://www.bea.gov/national/.


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